710
FXUS61 KCTP 210050
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
750 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID/EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
COLD IS STILL THE STORY. ALL THE CLOUDS BUT 2 OR 3 SMALL PATCHES
HAVE DISSIPATED. BIG LAKE BAND IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD
STAY THERE ALL NIGHT. HOLDING THE LINE WITH THE TEMPS/WIND
FORECAST. MIN WIND CHILL FORECASTS BRING THE NRN TIER AND
LAURELS INTO THE -20S LATE TONIGHT. JST IS ALREADY DOWN TO -15F
WIND CHILL ALREADY. WARNING THERE AND ADVY ELSEWHERE STILL
LOOKING GOOD.
SEE MAPS OF COLD PRODUCT CRITERIA ON OUR WEBSITE. IN SHORT, THE
NRN 2 TIERS OF ZONES NEED -25F OR LOWER TO WARRANT A WARNING
WHILE THE LAURELS AND REST OF CWA ONLY NEED TO GET DOWN TO -20F
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE ZONE/COUNTY. JST IS ALMOST THERE THIS
QUICKLY IN THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT, WITH LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CITIES/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN TACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND A BIT. THE COLDEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS AROUND -20) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF
ANY.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MILDER, AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS SECTION OF THE FCST.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT
WEAK SYSTEMS MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT TIMES, SO I DID
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF A GENERAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOT LARGE
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT 00Z, LINGERING LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS) CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS PREVAILED
BENEATH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY, ALTHOUGH
WE'LL HOLD ONTO A 5-10 KT W/SWERLY BREEZE AT MANY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY, AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS (BFD/JST)
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. A CONTINUED
W/SWERLY BREEZE WILL GUST 10-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN PA BY THURSDAY PM. OTHERWISE,
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA THURS PM IN SCATTERED -SHSN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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