555
FXUS61 KCTP 210316
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1016 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID/EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
CLEAR SKY AND NOT MUCH GUST TO THE WIND ANYMORE. IN
FACT...SEVERAL METARS SHOW CALM AND EVEN BFD IS VRB04KT. IT'S
ALREADY -2F AT THV WHERE THE FRESH 6" OF SNOW AND OROGRAPHIC
POSITION ARE HELPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING MAXIMIZE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE NEG SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MOST PART, SO TEMPS HAVE
PLENTY OF ROOM TO FALL. WILL BE TWEAKING THE TEMPS TO TRY TO
MATCH UP AS WELL AS POSSIBLE. BUT, THE MICROMETEOROLOGICAL
NUANCES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE STILL
LOOKING GOOD AS IS.
SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN TACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND A BIT. THE COLDEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS AROUND -20) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF
ANY.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MILDER, AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS SECTION OF THE FCST.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT
WEAK SYSTEMS MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT TIMES, SO I DID
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF A GENERAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOT LARGE
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT 03Z, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH A
W/SWERLY BREEZE OF 5-10 KTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT VFR ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH A LIGHT W/SWERLY BREEZE.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS
(BFD/JST) DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. A
W/SWERLY BREEZE OF ~10 KTS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGHLANDS.
AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN PA BY THURSDAY PM. OTHERWISE,
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS NW PA THURS PM IN SCATTERED -SHSN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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