485
FXUS61 KCTP 210701
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID/EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
CLEAR SKY AND NOT MUCH GUST TO THE WIND ANYMORE. IN
FACT...SEVERAL METARS SHOW CALM AND EVEN BFD IS VRB04KT. IT'S
ALREADY -2F AT THV WHERE THE FRESH 6" OF SNOW AND OROGRAPHIC
POSITION ARE HELPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING MAXIMIZE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE NEG SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MOST PART, SO TEMPS HAVE
PLENTY OF ROOM TO FALL. WILL BE TWEAKING THE TEMPS TO TRY TO
MATCH UP AS WELL AS POSSIBLE. BUT, THE MICROMETEOROLOGICAL
NUANCES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE STILL
LOOKING GOOD AS IS.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN TACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND A BIT. THE COLDEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS AROUND -20) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF
ANY.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MILDER, AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING OFF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT A MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. EVEN WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT MAKING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST UNLIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL
COME UP TO BE CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMAL OFFERING MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW 30S IN THE NORTH. AT THE END OF
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST A 500MB TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE 21/06Z CYCLE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBFD
AND KJST AS EARLY AS 18-21Z WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS
BELOW 3KFT AGL LASTING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS END
BY 22/06Z, BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW PA THURS PM IN SCATTERED -SHSN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 22:
HARRISBURG 14F IN 2014
WILLIAMSPORT 14F IN 1961
ALTOONA 10F IN 2014
BRADFORD 6F IN 2014
STATE COLLEGE 7F IN 1936
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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