422
FXUS61 KCTP 210927
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
427 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT STILL SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND.
AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WE'LL SEE THE WELL-MIXED/
BOUNDARY LAYER GROW TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL AND FRESHENING OF THE
WESTERLY WIND WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO AT BEST TODAY.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES COVER THE
REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO BE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES NOTABLY
LOWER WIND CHILLS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES, PRIMARILY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF ANY.
SFC-850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR LOWEST POINTS
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF THEY COME IN CLOSE TO WHAT WE
HAVE OUT THEIR EARLY THIS TUESDAY, IT WILL BE BECAUSE OF A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WESTERLY BREEZE, WHICH WOULD ACT TO CREATE MORE
OF A BITE FROM A LOWER WIND CHILL. EITHER WAY, TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT WILL FEEL FROM THIS CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
THE COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS AROUND -20F) WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE TEENS FOR MOST PLACES,
BUT POSSIBLY HOLD AOB 10 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS, BUT THEY'LL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S, TO NEAR 30F IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING OFF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT A MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. EVEN WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT MAKING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST UNLIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL
COME UP TO BE CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMAL OFFERING MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW 30S IN THE NORTH. AT THE END OF
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST A 500MB TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE 21/06Z CYCLE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBFD
AND KJST AS EARLY AS 18-21Z WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS
BELOW 3KFT AGL LASTING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS END
BY 22/06Z, BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW PA THURS PM IN SCATTERED -SHSN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 22:
HARRISBURG 14F IN 2014
WILLIAMSPORT 14F IN 1961
ALTOONA 10F IN 2014
BRADFORD 6F IN 2014
STATE COLLEGE 7F IN 1936
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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