698
FXUS61 KCTP 212028
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT STILL SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A
MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM THIS INTO THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY VERY
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE, PUSHING 20 MPH
AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THIS ARCTIC STRETCH. WITH WIND CHILLS PUSHING
-20F, HAVE KEPT THE EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE TEENS FOR MOST PLACES,
BUT POSSIBLY HOLD AT OR ABOVE 10 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS, BUT THEY'LL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S, TO NEAR 30F IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS WEEK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
OFF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT.
DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. EVEN WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT MAKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST UNLIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO ENTER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME. AFTER THE ONE LATER TODAY AND AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ONE WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS AND EC SHOW A STRONG JET
STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA, SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA BY NEXT MONDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ANY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
SPLIT IN TWO, WITH THE REAL COLD AIR STAYING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, AND THE OTHER HIGH CENTER BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. CAN THANK THE GREAT LAKES WARMER WATERS TO AID IN HAVING
THE HIGH CENTERS SPLIT APART. ALSO WILL LIKELY HAVE SEVERAL
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK INTO SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP EASE THE PROBLEMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTENDED COLD SPELL.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, SO EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE LIMITED TO BFD AND JST.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...PRIMARILY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW PA THURS PM IN SCATTERED -SHSN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 22:
HARRISBURG 14F IN 2014
WILLIAMSPORT 14F IN 1961
ALTOONA 10F IN 2014
BRADFORD 6F IN 2014
STATE COLLEGE 7F IN 1936
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...GUSEMAN/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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