985
FXUS61 KCTP 170033
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
* TURNING *VERY* WINDY FOR LATE TODAY, TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY
AS LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP IN THE LAURELS
AND NW MOUNTAINS.
* COLD WEEK IN STORE WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING; A WINTER STORM COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PA WED- THU
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
TEMPS WERE FALLING STEADILY ACROSS THE WEST THIS MID AFTERNOON
HOUR, WHILE READINGS WERE TOPPING THE 50F MARK IN SOUTHERN YORK
AND SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTIES, JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WAS TRACKING EAST
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE UP TO A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z AND THROUGH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BY 22Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE
15-25 KT RANGE LATE TODAY (OR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE
CFROPA). WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 KTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION WILL
BE FELT.
A STEADY AND QUITE SHARP TEMP DROP THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE
TEENS WITHIN 6 HOURS AFTER THE CFROPA WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS TO FREEZE UP THE WET PAVEMENT
AND SLUSH AND CAUSE SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
COORDINATED WITH WFOS PBZ AND LWX TO POST A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
SOMERSET COUNTY WITH EMPHASIS ON THE RIDGES TO THE WEST OF RT
219 WHERE 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WNW
WINDS TO KNOCK VSBYS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
DANGEROUS TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL ACROSS THE RIDGES THERE.
IN ADDITION, A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS (WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT)
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING IS THE FIRST FOR NORTHEAST PA SINCE THE LAST SYNOPTIC
WIND EVENT ON FEBRUARY 24, 2019 (2184 DAYS AGO).
AS COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, FLURRIES AND BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE VALLEY
REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE DGZ LOWERS TO OCCUPY MUCH
OF THE THICK STRATOCU LAYER. NARROW LES STREAMERS COULD
PENETRATE THE CWA AS FAR SE AS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN A
WELL-ALIGNED LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING AROUND 50 KTS.
THE PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT ACROSS CAMBRIA COUNTY AND
THE NW MTNS COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3" THERE BY
EARLY MONDAY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS.
BY MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED 20 DEGREES
FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO TEENS IN
SOUTHEAST PA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY (ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS) AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER PENNSYLVANIA AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS OVER 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO
NEAR FREEZING IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES -10 TO -20F COMPARED TO AVERAGE COMBINED WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A DOWNRIGHT FRIGID DAY ON MONDAY WITH
MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST
OF I-99.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE COLDEST
AIR RELATIVE TO NORMAL WILL BE OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AM TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-15F ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND -10F IN THE LAURELS. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
GULF OF AMERICA. MAX TEMPS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE IN
THE 20S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
THE FOCUS WED PM INTO THURSDAY IS A POTENTIAL EAST COAST SNOW
STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MEAN
SURFACE LOW TRACK OF THE GEFS TRACKS THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE
LOW TOO FAR EAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA, BUT THE
ECENS MAINTAINS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S WINTER STORM OUTLOOKS PLOTS THE
PROBABILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS USING THEIR
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LATEST D4 WSO PAINTS 50-80% WARNING PROBABILITIES
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF US-30. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THE CHANCE FOR PLOWABLE SNOWFALL INCREASES
WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AT THIS POINT. NBM POPS AROUND 60PCT
SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT WED PM INTO THURSDAY.
BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK, AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW HEADS NE INTO THE N. ATLANTIC. AT
THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM, BUT ANY AMOUNT OF WIND ON TOP OF
THE BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAKES FOR BRISK WEATHER.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. MAINLY IFR TO VLIFR CIGS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BFD/JST. ALSO, VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE SHSN WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT FOR BFD AND MONDAY
AM FOR JST WHERE THE IFR WILL LAST THE LONGEST.
W/NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST OVER 35KTS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW - NEAR KBFD) FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
MON...IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND SHSN JST (MAINLY AM). GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER ALL THE AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
MON NIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY. ISOLD SHSN VICINITY
BFD.
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005-
010-017.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-
017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
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