677
FXUS61 KCTP 170119
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
819 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
* VERY WINDY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS.
* COLD WEEK IN STORE WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING; A WINTER STORM COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PA WED-THU
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG, LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET. GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS WITH
DOWNED TREES/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS
SHOULD BE PAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS OVER THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS, WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL THROUGH LATE EVENING. LATEST
MODEL QPF SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT
RANGING FROM <1 INCH OVER MOST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, TO AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES ON LAUREL RIDGE WEST OF JOHNSTOWN/SOMERSET.
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LATE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE TEMPS STEADILY DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NBM
TEMPS, WHICH BY DAWN RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS OVER THE NW MTNS,
TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS BY DAWN
SHOULD RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE LOW
TEENS IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH WFOS PBZ AND LWX TO POST A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
SOMERSET COUNTY WITH EMPHASIS ON THE RIDGES TO THE WEST OF RT
219, WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO KNOCK VSBYS
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS TO NEAR
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL ACROSS THE RIDGES THERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL MAINTAIN STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL PA MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE W
MTNS MONDAY, BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MIXING DOWN MODEL 850MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -18C YIELDS EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER
THE NW MTNS, TO THE LOW 30S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MIDDAY WCHILLS NEAR
ZERO OF THE N MTNS, AND TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT, AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 1KM. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AM TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND -10F IN THE LAURELS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE COLDEST AIR
RELATIVE TO NORMAL WILL BE OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS TUESDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS.
THE FOCUS WED PM INTO THURSDAY IS A POTENTIAL EAST COAST SNOW
STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MEAN
SURFACE LOW TRACK OF THE GEFS TRACKS THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE
LOW TOO FAR EAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA, BUT THE
ECENS MAINTAINS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S WINTER STORM OUTLOOKS PLOTS THE
PROBABILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS USING THEIR
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LATEST D4 WSO PAINTS 50-80% WARNING
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF US-30. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THE CHANCE FOR PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL INCREASES WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AT THIS POINT. NBM
POPS AROUND 60PCT SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT WED PM INTO
THURSDAY.
BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK, AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW HEADS NE INTO THE N. ATLANTIC. AT
THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM, BUT ANY AMOUNT OF WIND ON TOP OF
THE BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAKES FOR BRISK WEATHER.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. MAINLY IFR TO VLIFR CIGS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BFD/JST. ALSO, VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE SHSN WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT FOR BFD AND MONDAY
AM FOR JST WHERE THE IFR WILL LAST THE LONGEST.
W/NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST OVER 35KTS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW - NEAR KBFD) FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
MON...IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND SHSN JST (MAINLY AM). GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER ALL THE AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
MON NIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY. ISOLD SHSN VICINITY
BFD.
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005-
010-017.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-
017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
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