299
FXUS61 KCTP 170600
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
100 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* VERY WINDY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS.
* COLD WEEK IN STORE WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING; A WINTER STORM COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PA WED-THU
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG, LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS OF >50KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET HAVE EXITED THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTS
OVERNIGHT OF AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 40KTS.
THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS OVER THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS, WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL THROUGH LATE EVENING. LATEST
MODEL QPF SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT
RANGING FROM <1 INCH OVER MOST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, TO AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES ON LAUREL RIDGE WEST OF JOHNSTOWN/SOMERSET.
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LATE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE TEMPS STEADILY DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NBM
TEMPS, WHICH BY DAWN RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS OVER THE NW MTNS,
TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS BY DAWN
SHOULD RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE LOW
TEENS IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH WFOS PBZ AND LWX TO POST A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
SOMERSET COUNTY WITH EMPHASIS ON THE RIDGES TO THE WEST OF RT
219, WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO KNOCK VSBYS
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS TO NEAR
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL ACROSS THE RIDGES THERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL MAINTAIN STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL PA MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE W
MTNS MONDAY, BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MIXING DOWN MODEL 850MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -18C YIELDS EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER
THE NW MTNS, TO THE LOW 30S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MIDDAY WCHILLS NEAR
ZERO OF THE N MTNS, AND TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT, AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 1KM. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AM TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND -10F IN THE LAURELS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE
HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS TUESDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DIMINISHING RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THE 18Z GEFS/EPS BOTH
TRACKING A DEEPENING EAST COAST SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA WED PM TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
STILL TRACK THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS IS GREATER CERTAINTY IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED UPPER LOW ROLLING
IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING,
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE W MTNS, WITH EVEN LESS
ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY, COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT
LIGHT WINDS, A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE AIRSPACE
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
PASSING OVERHEAD. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SITES OF UNV, AOO, JST, AND BFD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOWER CHANCE (50%) OF SNOW BEND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT IPT. ONCE THESE BANDS TAPPER OFF ISOLATED
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER AT BFD AND JST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THESE TWO SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST AT MDT AND LNS WILL REMAIN IN VFR WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND CEILINGS NEAR 5,000FT.
W/NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST OVER 35KTS TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW - NEAR KBFD) FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH.
AFTER DAY BREAK THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SNOWSHOWER LINGERING. EVERYWHERE
ELSE SHOULD QUICKLY COME UP TO VFR WITH RISING CEILINGS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADDITION TO THE
GUSTY WIND.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY. ISOLD SHSN VICINITY
BFD.
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-005-010-017.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ006-011-
012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-025-
033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BOWEN
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