891
FXUS61 KCTP 170928
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-99 AND NORTH OF I-80.
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ALL WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY; TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -10F IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
* WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHILE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM A COASTAL STORM LIKELY
STAYS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BUFFET CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50KTS, WHICH ARE PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR THE LAURELS, WHERE RIDGETOP WIND
GUSTS COULD STILL EXCEED 50KTS AT TIMES TODAY. ELSEWHERE,
CONVERTED ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO A WIND ADVISORY NOW THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET LAST NIGHT HAVE EXITED THE AREA.
THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT HAVE BROKEN OUT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THESE BANDS ARE SLOWLY BUT
SURELY WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL, BUT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL REMAINS
POSSIBLE.NOTABLY, A LAKE EFFECT STREAMER BAND SET UP OVER
ALTOONA FOR ABOUT AN HOUR THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVERED ROADS THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY PICKED
UP A QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO SNOW
BAND (VERY FLUFFY SNOW). MEANWHILE, OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SNOW IN THE LAURELS CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
THERE. LATEST MODEL QPF SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ON LAUREL RIDGE WEST OF
JOHNSTOWN/SOMERSET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAMBRIA COUNTY WHILE A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOMERSET COUNTY FOCUSING ON THE RIDGES
WEST OF 219.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOW TEENS OVER THE NW MTNS AND MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS CAPPED NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER TO THE TEENS IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS. IN THESE COLD
ADVECTION PATTERNS WILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT, CLOUDS
FREQUENTLY LAST LONGER WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED. AS
SUCH, GOING WITH A "PARTLY SUNNY AT BEST" DAY FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 1KM. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH EARLY TUESDAY AM
TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND -10F IN THE LAURELS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL OR
PART OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE
HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS TUESDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO STILL BE A
BIT BLUSTERY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO
30MPH. ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS (-15 TO -25F COMPARED TO NORMAL)
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALL DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER, IN SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-99/I-80
CORRIDOR, AND ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DIMINISHING RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THE 18Z GEFS/EPS BOTH
TRACKING A DEEPENING EAST COAST SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA WED PM TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
STILL TRACK THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS IS GREATER CERTAINTY IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED UPPER LOW ROLLING
IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING,
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE W MTNS, WITH EVEN LESS
ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY, COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT
LIGHT WINDS, A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE AIRSPACE
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
PASSING OVERHEAD. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SITES OF UNV, AOO, JST, AND BFD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOWER CHANCE (50%) OF SNOW BEND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT IPT. ONCE THESE BANDS TAPPER OFF ISOLATED
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER AT BFD AND JST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THESE TWO SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST AT MDT AND LNS WILL REMAIN IN VFR WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND CEILINGS NEAR 5,000FT.
W/NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST OVER 35KTS TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW - NEAR KBFD) FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH.
AFTER DAY BREAK THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING. EVERYWHERE
ELSE SHOULD QUICKLY COME UP TO VFR WITH RISING CEILINGS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADDITION TO THE
GUSTY WIND.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY. ISOLD SHSN VICINITY
BFD.
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ017-018-024-033.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-025-
033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BOWEN
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