942
FXUS61 KCTP 171635
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1135 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-99
AND NORTH OF I-80.
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ALL WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY; TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -10F IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
* WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHILE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM A COASTAL STORM LIKELY
STAYS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WINDS AND GUSTS FROM THE WNW HAVE RAMPED UP BY ABOUT 10-15 KTS
FROM A SLIGHT LULL EARLIER THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE NARROW,
ENE MIGRATING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS, ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 (KTS), THE PLAN IS TO
ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS TO RUN UNTIL
THEIR EXPIRATION THIS AFTERNOON (LIKELY CANCELING THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR OUR 4 SW COUNTIES - OR POSSIBLY LOWERING IT TO AN
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS PEAK GUSTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 KT BY DUSK IN THAT AREA.
PREVIOUS DISC...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW TEENS OVER THE NW MTNS AND MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS CAPPED NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER TO THE TEENS IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS. IN THESE COLD
ADVECTION PATTERNS WILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT, CLOUDS
FREQUENTLY LAST LONGER WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED. AS
SUCH, GOING WITH A "PARTLY SUNNY AT BEST" DAY FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 1KM. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH EARLY TUESDAY AM
TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND -10F IN THE LAURELS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL OR
PART OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE
HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS TUESDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO STILL BE A
BIT BLUSTERY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO
30MPH. ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS (-15 TO -25F COMPARED TO NORMAL)
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALL DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER, IN SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-99/I-80
CORRIDOR, AND ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DIMINISHING RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THE 18Z GEFS/EPS BOTH
TRACKING A DEEPENING EAST COAST SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA WED PM TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
STILL TRACK THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS IS GREATER CERTAINTY IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED UPPER LOW ROLLING
IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING,
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE W MTNS, WITH EVEN LESS
ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY, COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT
LIGHT WINDS, A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ENE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS LATE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LOW END MVFR TO IFR
IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SITES NEAR AND UNDER THE SNOW BANDS.
ONCE THESE BANDS TAPPER OFF ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER AT
BFD AND JST, WHILE MAINLY VFR WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF THE TIME
AT OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
W/NW WINDS WILL OCNLY GUST OVER 40KTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 65
MPH (~50-55 KTS). ELSEWHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED
IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN LOW
FOR JST AND BFD INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE'S A
LOW END CHANCE THEY COULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 0Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW, THUS MVFR HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THEM THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY IN THIS FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY. ISOLD SHSN VICINITY
BFD.
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-025-
033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
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