140
FXUS61 KCTP 171950
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY MUCH OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WE EXPERIENCED THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ALL WEEK WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY; TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -10F IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
* WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FOR
THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION, WHILE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM A COASTAL STORM LIKELY STAYS
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WERE STILL COMMON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PEAK GUSTS IN THE MID 40S (KTS) WERE OCCURRING AT
KAOO AS OF THE PAST HOUR.
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BENEATH TWO SEPARATE ZONAL JET
SEGMENTS WILL ACCENTUATE THE STRONG GRADIENT WIND TO MAINTAIN
GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 KT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT, IF NOT RIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SOME SCATTERED LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME
ALTO CU HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE BACKING OF THE LLVL FLOW (ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS PA) TO PUSH PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE REMAINING NARROW
BANDS OF LIGHT SHSN TO NEAR THE ROUTE 6 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN PA.
WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 21Z TODAY
AND LIKELY END THE HIGH WIND WARNING (IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TUESDAY) TOO AT THAT TIME.
SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
AS NOTED ABOVE, WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AM TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AND -10F IN THE LAURELS.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH JUST SOME SCT-OCNLY BKN SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AS IS TYPICAL OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THE HEIGHT OF THIS
COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR RELATIVE TO
NORMAL OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE HIGHS TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE IN
THE LOWER TEENS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO STILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. ANOMALOUSLY
COLD TEMPS (-15 TO -25F COMPARED TO NORMAL) AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALL DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER,
IN SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-99/I-80 CORRIDOR, AND ONLY IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING A SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10-14 PCT
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY WED.
THIS IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ROLLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING, STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF
SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO 1 INCH OVER THE W
MTNS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT
LIGHT WINDS, SOME SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SHSN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS OF PA INVOF KBFD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, LOOK
FOR VFR CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THE 18Z/21Z TAF PERIOD.
W/NW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 35-40KTS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRFIELDS, THEN DECREASE ABOUT 5-10KTS TONIGHT,
STILL STAYING MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-025-
033-034.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT
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