580
FXUS61 KCTP 180532
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1232 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE STILL NOTED OVER
CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z, AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE MARGINALLY OVERNIGHT, WITH
GUSTS AT DAWN STILL IN THE 20-25KT RANGE.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS STEADILY
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH DAYBREAK READINGS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID TEENS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM CLOSE
TO -15F OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, TO AROUND ZERO IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
LAKE-ENHANCED, OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FLY
AT 03Z OVER THE NW MTNS, BUT FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD
CAUSE THEM TO DIMINISH BY DAWN. A FROZEN LK ERIE AND ONLY MEAGER
MOISTURE FROM DISTANT LK MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS
LIGHT THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL QPF SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER WARREN TO
POTTER COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO COLD AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER CONUS AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA.
MODEL RH TIMESECTIONS INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TUESDAY, WITH
JUST SOME SCT-OCNLY BKN SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE W MTNS,
AS IS TYPICAL OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP
ANOMALIES INDICATE THE HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY. MIXING DOWN MODEL 850MB TEMPS OF -18C TO -21C YIELDS
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST THE LOW AND MID TEENS
OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID 20S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO STILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. ANOMALOUSLY
COLD TEMPS (-15 TO -25F COMPARED TO NORMAL) AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ALL DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER,
IN SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-99/I-80 CORRIDOR, AND ONLY IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA.
EXPECT FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TUE
NIGHT UNDER AN ARRIVING SURFACE RIDGE. EPS 2M TEMP PLUMES
INDICATE TUE NIGHT WILL BE JUST AS COLD AS TONIGHT WITH MINTEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. HOWEVER, WCHILLS SHOULD NOT
BE AS LOW AS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING A SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10-14 PCT
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY WED.
THIS IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ROLLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING, STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF
SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO 1 INCH OVER THE W
MTNS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS, SOME SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER BFD. AS
OF 06Z MRMS RADAR SUGGESTS THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS END BFD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS. THE LAUREL RIDGES OF JST WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN MVFR OVERNIGHT. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER
AIRFIELDS SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH RISING
CLOUD HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PACKAGE AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
AIRFIELDS, THEN DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
SAT-SUN...VFR AND DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-042-045.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/COLBERT
AVIATION...BOWEN
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