052
FXUS61 KCTP 180950
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN STORY THIS MORNING REMAINS BRISK CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA WITH CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO AS COLD AS -15F OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH FLURRIES
ABATING IN MOST AREAS (KBFD IS CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND 3SM VSBY). WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD,
THESE SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE.
FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
WIND GUSTS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT TODAY, WITH THE TYPICAL NW FLOW SCT-BKN SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE W MTNS. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES
INDICATE THE HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. MIXING
DOWN MODEL 850MB TEMPS OF -18C TO -21C YIELDS EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST THE LOW AND MID TEENS OVER THE N MTNS,
TO THE MID 20S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
EXPECT FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHTNIGHT
UNDER AN ARRIVING SURFACE RIDGE. 2M TEMP PLUMES INDICATE
READINGS WILL BE JUST AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH MINTEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS
COLD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FLAT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS SOME PASSING
FLURRIES WED AFTN. THE NORTH WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLY COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 15 TO 20F OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING A SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10-14 PCT
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY WED.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ROLLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LLVL DEFORMATION
BETWEEN IT AND THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING SFC LOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF
SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO 1 INCH OVER THE W
MTNS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS, SOME SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER BFD. AS
OF 06Z MRMS RADAR SUGGESTS THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS END BFD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS. THE LAUREL RIDGES OF JST WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN MVFR OVERNIGHT. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER
AIRFIELDS SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH RISING
CLOUD HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PACKAGE AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
AIRFIELDS, THEN DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
SAT-SUN...VFR AND DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-042-045.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/COLBERT
AVIATION...BOWEN
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