944
FXUS61 KCTP 181113
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN STORY THIS MORNING REMAINS BRISK CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA WITH CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO AS COLD AS -15F OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH FLURRIES
ABATING IN MOST AREAS (KBFD IS CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND 3SM VSBY). WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD,
THESE SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE.
FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
WIND GUSTS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT TODAY, WITH THE TYPICAL NW FLOW SCT-BKN SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE W MTNS. ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP ANOMALIES
INDICATE THE HEIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. MIXING
DOWN MODEL 850MB TEMPS OF -18C TO -21C YIELDS EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST THE LOW AND MID TEENS OVER THE N MTNS,
TO THE MID 20S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
EXPECT FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT
UNDER AN ARRIVING SURFACE RIDGE. 2M TEMP PLUMES INDICATE
READINGS WILL BE JUST AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH MINTEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS
COLD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FLAT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS SOME PASSING
FLURRIES WED AFTN. THE NORTH WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLY COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 15 TO 20F OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING A SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10-14 PCT
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY WED.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ROLLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LLVL DEFORMATION
BETWEEN IT AND THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING SFC LOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECEDING
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LATEST EPS MEAN QPF
SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO 1 INCH OVER THE W
MTNS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BLUSTERY WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS, SOME SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
OVER BFD, JST, AND UNV. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER BFD AND
STRATO CU OVER JST AND UNV SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR BETWEEN
14Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS SHOULD HAVE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH RISING CLOUD HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PACKAGE AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 5-10KTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA, BUT SOME GLANCING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL LIKELY IMPACT AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
SAT-SUN...VFR AND DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-042-045.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/COLBERT
AVIATION...BOWEN
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