790
FXUS61 KCTP 181853
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
THERMALLY DIRECT LEFT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET
SEGMENT WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.
VERY COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPS (RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN, TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY)
AVERAGING 15 TO 20 DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.
WNW WINDS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY GUSTY INTO THE 20S (KTS)
CREATING A BITE TO THE AIR WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
EXPECT FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT
UNDER AN ARRIVING SURFACE RIDGE. 2M TEMP PLUMES INDICATE
READINGS WILL BE JUST AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH MINTEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS
COLD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FLAT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS SOME PASSING
FLURRIES WED AFTN. THE NORTH WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLY COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 15 TO 20F OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
+SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OR 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
CLIMO.
DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW (-2 TO -3SD) WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
PA BETWEEN 20/0000UTC AND 21/0000UTC. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE,
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT/FLUFFY (DRY) SNOW ACCUMULATION (SLR >18-20:1) ACROSS
CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY. INCREASING NW FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF POWDER IN THE
PERENNIAL SNOWBELTS, SUMMITS, AND SKI RESORTS TO THE WEST OF
US-219 ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AND QUITE COLD
EVEN BY LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH MAX TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS -10 TO +10F.
BLUSTERY NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WE WERE KEEN TO FOLLOW THE USUAL
PLAYBOOK ADJUSTMENTS VS. NBM WHICH INCLUDED HIGHER POPS, QPF,
SNOWFALL, AND WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THU AND FRI. SNOWFALL AND MAX
WIND GUSTS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
COULD STILL IMPACT TRAVEL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE ARCTIC PUNCH WILL MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER/CLOSER TO LONG TERM AVERAGES SATURDAY-TUESDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY WITH FAST MOVING/MOISTURE LACKING CLIPPER
TYPE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FAVOR LOW POPS ON
BALANCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WNW SURFACE FLOW WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL LEAD TO OCNL MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTN AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
WITH
RISING CLOUD HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PACKAGE AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT AS WELL BEFORE DECREASING BY
ABOUT 5-10KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA, BUT SOME GLANCING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL LIKELY IMPACT AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE, ESP S.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
SAT-SUN...VFR AND DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
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