119
FXUS61 KCTP 190611
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TRANQUIL AND BITTER COLD NIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE.
CLEAR SKIES AT PRESENT WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS PER LATEST GOES
IMAGERY. CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS TO THE LOW 10S
IN THE SE. A BIT OF WIND WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH
THE VERY COLD TEMPS TO PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE -5 TO
-10F RANGE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS, AND INTO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SOUTH- CENTRAL ZONES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT AND HREF RH FIELDS SHOW PLENTY OF
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ENE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET COUNTY COULD SEE A
FEW SNOWFLAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NW WINDS OF 7 TO 15 KTS IN THE
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY ONLY 3-4 DEG F COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MODERATE BY 10-15 DEG F DOD AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH 15 TO 20F OVER THE NORTHERN TIER, RANGING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OR 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMO.
A DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW (-2 TO -3SD) WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
PA BETWEEN 20/0000UTC AND 21/0000UTC. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE,
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT/FLUFFY (DRY) SNOW ACCUMULATION (SLR >18-20:1) ACROSS
CENTRAL PA BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY AND LIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING NW FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF POWDER IN THE
PERENNIAL SNOWBELTS, SUMMITS, AND SKI RESORTS TO THE WEST OF
US-219 ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AND QUITE COLD
EVEN BY LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH MAX TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
-10 TO +10F. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
BLUSTERY NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL AND MAX WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
COULD STILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ARCTIC PUNCH WILL MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER/CLOSER TO LONG TERM AVERAGES SATURDAY-TUESDAY
THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH FAST MOVING/MOISTURE LACKING CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FAVOR LOW POPS ON
BALANCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE A
WELCOME BREAK AFTER A SEEMINGLY INCESSANT BATCH OF WINTER STORMS
EVERY FEW DAYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
EVOLVE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH PLAIN RAIN FAVORED FOR ELSEWHERE
AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK IN
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WNW SURFACE FLOW WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LIKELY FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTN AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25KTS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-10KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY IN THE
FORM OF A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THICK CLOUD COVER WITH LOWERING BASES AND LIKELY SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR, WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND
STEADY/HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...GENERALLY VFR, THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AN 8-15KT BREEZE
FROM THE NW IN THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING WIND.
LATE WED NIGHT-THU...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
FRI...POST STORM GUSTY W-NW WINDS. REDUCED CIGS LIKELY BFD/JST.
SAT-SUN...VFR AND DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
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