632
FXUS61 KCTP 190901
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TRANQUIL AND QUITE COLD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO DECREASE TO A LIGHT WNW BREEZE WHILE SFC TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE LAURELS TO THE
NC MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 10 TO 15F RANGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS. WITH JUST A BIT OF WIND, EARLY MORNING CHILLS WILL RANGE
FROM -5 TO -10F ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS AND THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SOUTH- CENTRAL ZONES.
IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY, AS
MID CLOUD THICKENS AND LOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET
COUNTY MAY SEE A ROGUE FLURRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE DRY IN CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY ONLY 3-4 DEG
F COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MODERATE BY
10-15 DEG F DOD AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH 15 TO 20F OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS THROUGH OHIO AND TOWARDS WESTERN PA BY 12Z
THU. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
LATE FEBRUARY CLIMO.
THU FORECAST ON TRACK AS A DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW (-2 TO -3SD)
TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 20/0000UTC AND 21/0000UTC.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT/FLUFFY (DRY) SNOW ACCUMULATION
(SLR >18-20:1) ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON
THURSDAY AND LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING NW FLOW
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF
POWDER IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELTS, SUMMITS, AND SKI RESORTS TO
THE WEST OF US-219 ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AND
QUITE COLD EVEN BY LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH MAX TEMPS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
-10 TO +10F. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
BLUSTERY NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL AND MAX WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
COULD STILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ARCTIC PUNCH WILL MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER/CLOSER TO LONG TERM AVERAGES SATURDAY-TUESDAY
THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH FAST MOVING/MOISTURE LACKING CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FAVOR LOW POPS ON
BALANCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE A
WELCOME BREAK AFTER A SEEMINGLY INCESSANT BATCH OF WINTER STORMS
EVERY FEW DAYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
EVOLVE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH PLAIN RAIN FAVORED FOR ELSEWHERE
AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK IN
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAYERED HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FLIGHT CATS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 19/06Z
TAF PERIOD AT 6/7 TERMINALS; KBFD IS LIKELY TO TREND TO MVFR (>60%
CHANCE) BY THIS EVENING/00Z THU.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (>70% CHANCE) IN LIGHT SNOW.
25-35KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 300-330 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH >50% CONFIDENCE IN IFR
SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR/IFR AT KBFD & KJST (MVFR TO LOW VFR ELSEWHERE). SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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