486
FXUS61 KCTP 191537
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FLURRY OR TWO WILL REACH THE
GROUND IN THE FAR SRN TIER (MAINLY SOMERSET CO) THIS AFTN. THERE
IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT 2G4 (OAKLAND MD) IN GARRETT CO, MD AT
1030Z. HOWEVER, NO ONE IN PA SHOULD GET AN ACCUMULATION. THE
THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER IS SURE TO HAMPER OUR HEATING HOPES THIS
AFTN. WE HAVE KNOCKED A DEG OFF EXPECTED MAXES IN THE SRN TIER
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST. OTHERWISE, THE SUN MAY POKE
THROUGH IN THE WEST BEFORE DAY'S END.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES MAY CLEAR PARTLY THIS EVENING, BUT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS THROUGH OHIO AND TOWARDS WESTERN PA BY 12Z THU.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY CLIMO.
THU FORECAST ON TRACK AS A DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW (-2 TO -3SD)
TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 20/0000UTC AND 21/0000UTC.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT/FLUFFY (DRY) SNOW ACCUMULATION
(SLR >18-20:1) ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON
THURSDAY AND LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING NW FLOW
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF
POWDER IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELTS, SUMMITS, AND SKI RESORTS TO
THE WEST OF US-219 ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AND
QUITE COLD EVEN BY LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH MAX TEMPS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
-10 TO +10F. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
BLUSTERY NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL AND MAX WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
COULD STILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ARCTIC PUNCH WILL MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER/CLOSER TO LONG TERM AVERAGES SATURDAY-TUESDAY
THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH FAST MOVING/MOISTURE LACKING CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FAVOR LOW POPS ON
BALANCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE A
WELCOME BREAK AFTER A SEEMINGLY INCESSANT BATCH OF WINTER STORMS
EVERY FEW DAYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
EVOLVE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH PLAIN RAIN FAVORED FOR ELSEWHERE
AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK IN
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAYERED HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FLIGHT CATS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 19/06Z
TAF PERIOD AT 6/7 TERMINALS; KBFD IS LIKELY TO TREND TO MVFR (>60%
CHANCE) BY THIS EVENING/00Z THU.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (>70% CHANCE) IN LIGHT SNOW.
25-35KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 300-330 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH >50% CONFIDENCE IN IFR
SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR/IFR AT KBFD & KJST (MVFR TO LOW VFR ELSEWHERE). SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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