049
FXUS61 KCTP 191741
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FLURRY OR TWO WILL REACH THE
GROUND IN THE FAR SRN TIER (MAINLY SOMERSET CO) THIS AFTN. THERE
IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT 2G4 (OAKLAND MD) IN GARRETT CO, MD AT
1030Z. HOWEVER, NO ONE IN PA SHOULD GET AN ACCUMULATION. THE
THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER IS SURE TO HAMPER OUR HEATING HOPES THIS
AFTN. WE HAVE KNOCKED A DEG OFF EXPECTED MAXES IN THE SRN TIER
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST. OTHERWISE, THE SUN MAY POKE
THROUGH IN THE WEST BEFORE DAY'S END.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES MAY CLEAR PARTLY THIS EVENING, BUT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS THROUGH OHIO AND TOWARDS WESTERN PA BY 12Z THU.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY CLIMO.
THU FORECAST ON TRACK AS A DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW (-2 TO -3SD)
TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 20/0000UTC AND 21/0000UTC.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT/FLUFFY (DRY) SNOW ACCUMULATION
(SLR >18-20:1) ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON
THURSDAY AND LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING NW FLOW
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF
POWDER IN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELTS, SUMMITS, AND SKI RESORTS TO
THE WEST OF US-219 ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AND
QUITE COLD EVEN BY LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH MAX TEMPS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
-10 TO +10F. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
BLUSTERY NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL AND MAX WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
COULD STILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO
NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WHILE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE STATE. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, BUT RAIN WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS YET.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OUTSIDE OF MDT AND LNS AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. IFR
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT BFD, JST, AND AOO AS WELL. WIND GUSTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, WITH GUST OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR/IFR AT KBFD & KJST (MVFR TO LOW VFR ELSEWHERE). SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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