231
FXUS61 KCTP 192029
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS RIGHT NOW, AND SOME REAL
CLEARING OVER WRN PA HEADED THIS WAY. IT WON'T LAST TOO LONG,
BUT AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT, THE HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING NICELY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OH. THE
WIND COULD DIE OFF IN SHELTERED AREAS, AND BE LIGHT ELSEWHERE.
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TO SOMERSET/JST
AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEPENING UPPER LOW PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL HELP DRIVE SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT QPF IS EXTREMELY LIGHT AND VERY SPOTTY SE OF UNV.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER IS BEFORE NOON,
AND MAINLY IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AFTER THE DEEPEST PART OF
THE LOW PASSES (18Z IN W AND 22Z E), ONLY LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SHOULD BE LEFT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH FORCING IS THERE IN THE MORNING
TO DROP A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN 70PCT OF THE AREA, BUT ONLY THE
ALLEGHENIES (ESP THE LAURELS) WILL HAVE ACCUMS IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM. THE 20:1 SLRS WILL BE JUST ABOUT THE
ONLY THING HELPING THE ACCUMS TO GET NEAR ADVY LEVELS FOR THE
LAURELS. SO, WE DID ISSUE AN ADVY FOR 2-4" OF SNOW STARTING
THURS AM AND RUNNING 25 HRS INTO FRI AM. THE ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY (LIKE 0.5"/HR OR BETTER) AT ANY POINT, BUT THE GRADUAL
BUILD UP OVER THAT TIME IS JUST (BARELY) ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVY. THOUGHT ABOUT ONE FOR CAMBRIA CO AND EVEN A LAKE EFFECT
ADVY FOR WARREN, TOO. BUT, IT REALLY ONLY SEEMS LIKE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET CO (MT DAVIS, LAUREL SUMMIT, BABCOCK MTN)
WILL HAVE THE (80%) POTENTIAL OF GETTING TO 3" TOTALS. THOSE
OTHER TWO COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY GET AROUND 2" ACCUMS.
GOOD CLEARING COMES TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT THE NW
FLOW WILL JUST BE RELAXING AND COULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
STRATOCU IN THE ALLEGHENIES. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOUT 10F
MILDER IN THE NW THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT GET BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE WHICH ISN'T TOO DIFFERENT
THAN PERSISTENCE. MAXES THURS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WE DO
ADD 5F IN THE NW AND 10F IN THE SE FOR FRI AFTN. MINS FRI AM
WON'T BE AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS, BUT ENOUGH WIND COULD MAKE
THE APPARENT TEMPS GET CLOSE TO -10F ON THE HIGHER HILL TOPS OF
THE LAURELS. SO, THAT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR, TOO. IF IT GETS
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WE MAY NEED AN ADVY FOR THE COLD/LOW
WIND CHILLS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO
NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WHILE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE STATE. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, BUT RAIN WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS YET.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OUTSIDE OF MDT AND LNS AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. IFR
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT BFD, JST, AND AOO AS WELL. WIND GUSTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, WITH GUST OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR/IFR AT KBFD & KJST (MVFR TO LOW VFR ELSEWHERE). SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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