479
FXUS61 KCTP 200249
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARD PA.
* AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION.
* GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PRECEDE A WARMING TREND
INTO THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
OVERCAST SKIES NORTH OF I-80 AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THERE WILL SLOWLY FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WIND COULD DIE OFF IN SHELTERED
AREAS, BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE AS WELL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST PA TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS IN THE SOUTHEAST. THESE LOWS ARE -5 TO -10F
COMPARED TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND MORE CLOUD COVER, WIND CHILL SHOULD STAY A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TO
SOMERSET/JST AROUND SUNRISE, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA STAYS
PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEPENING UPPER LOW PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL HELP DRIVE SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT QPF IS EXTREMELY LIGHT AND VERY SPOTTY SE OF UNV.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER IS BEFORE NOON,
AND MAINLY IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AFTER THE DEEPEST PART OF
THE LOW PASSES (18Z IN W AND 22Z E), ONLY LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SHOULD BE LEFT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH FORCING IS THERE IN THE MORNING
TO DROP A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN 70PCT OF THE AREA, BUT ONLY THE
ALLEGHENIES (ESP THE LAURELS) WILL HAVE ACCUMS IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM. THE 20:1 SLRS WILL BE JUST ABOUT THE
ONLY THING HELPING THE ACCUMS TO GET NEAR ADVY LEVELS FOR THE
LAURELS. SO, WE DID ISSUE AN ADVY FOR 2-4" OF SNOW STARTING
THURS AM AND RUNNING 25 HRS INTO FRI AM. THE ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY (LIKE 0.5"/HR OR BETTER) AT ANY POINT, BUT THE GRADUAL
BUILD UP OVER THAT TIME IS JUST (BARELY) ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVY. THOUGHT ABOUT ONE FOR CAMBRIA CO AND EVEN A LAKE EFFECT
ADVY FOR WARREN, TOO. BUT, IT REALLY ONLY SEEMS LIKE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET CO (MT DAVIS, LAUREL SUMMIT, BABCOCK MTN)
WILL HAVE THE (80%) POTENTIAL OF GETTING TO 3" TOTALS. THOSE
OTHER TWO COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY GET AROUND 2" ACCUMS.
AS SNOW CLEARS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, GUSTY WINDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS
OF NC AND VA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25 TO 35MPH SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THESE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH A DRY/FLUFFY SNOW, COULD ALSO CREATE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW CONCERNS INCLUDING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LINGERING ICY
SPOTS INTO FRIDAY - ESPECIALLY ON ROADS WITH EXPOSURE/OPEN AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXES THURS VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS EVENING DROPPING
A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. MINS FRI AM WON'T BE AS COLD
AS RECENT NIGHTS, BUT ENOUGH WIND COULD MAKE THE APPARENT TEMPS
GET CLOSE TO -10F ON THE HIGHER HILL TOPS OF THE LAURELS. SO,
THAT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR, TOO. IF IT GETS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, WE MAY NEED AN ADVY FOR THE COLD/LOW WIND CHILLS. BY
FRIDAY, BUILDING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TRENDING UP. WE WILL ADD 5F IN THE NW AND
10F IN THE SE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRATOCUMULUS COULD HANG ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED/PREFERRED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO
NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WHILE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE STATE. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, BUT RAIN WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS YET.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OUTSIDE OF MDT AND LNS AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. IFR
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT BFD, JST, AND AOO AS WELL. WIND GUSTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, WITH GUST OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR/IFR AT KBFD & KJST (MVFR TO LOW VFR ELSEWHERE). SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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