173
FXUS61 KCTP 210053
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY, THEN A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
LARGER SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BECOME A BROAD AREA OF CELLULAR
CONVECTION/SHSN AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
19Z. THE FLOW SHOULD ALIGN BETTER LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
AND COULD MAKE MORE IN THE WAY OF BANDED STRUCTURES. SOME ARE
PROGGED TO GET DOWN INTO LNS LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS THERE SHOULD JUST BE A DUSTING.
6 HRS OF -SN (GENERALLY 2-4SM VISBY) IN STATE COLLEGE WITH
SUB-20F TEMPS HAS YIELDED THE TINIEST AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MULCH AND GRASS, AND ONLY WET SIDEWALKS AND
ASPHALT. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE IS LIKELY HELPING THINGS STAY
LAME. SOME ACCUMS ON THE ROADS ARE SEEN ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON I-80 AND IN THE LAURELS. EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPING TO
WIN OUT THIS EVENING AND DRY THINGS UP DOWNHILL OF THE OL' AOO-
UNV-IPT LINE. THE DRY LLVLS WILL ALSO MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LAURELS, MAINLY SOMERSET CO. THIS IS (JUST) ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
CONTINUING THE ADVY THERE.
THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO BETWEEN -5F
AND +5F ACROSS THE BOARD. A FEW PIXELS OF -10F ARE SEEN OVER
POTTER AND SOMERSET COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH COVERAGE OF
THESE LOW VALUES TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVY (POTTER NEEDS
TO GET TO -15F ANYWAY).
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
GUSTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S (AND 40-ISH ON THE HILLTOPS OF THE
LAURELS) WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE DAYTIME FRIDAY, DESPITE A
FALLING INVERSION SINCE THE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS. CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TEAM UP WITH THE DOWNSLOPE TO BUMP MAX
TEMPS 5-6F OVER THURS VALUES IN THE SE, BUT ONLY A DEG OR SO NW.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH CPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A SHORT TERM BOTTOM FOR
TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE +SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY TAKEAWAYS: SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 22 - THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27
------------------------------------------------------------
*WARMING TREND TO NEAR/ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES TO END FEBRUARY
*NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY
*QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS BRING PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON-TUE
*HIGHEST PROBABILITY & CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THU-FRI
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES [WARMING TREND] EXPECTED
FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 2025. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH/EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A PAIR OF FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS. MAX POPS ARE ON TUESDAY BASED ON NBM AND EC/CMC/GFS
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS SHOW A LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW. WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THIS TIME WINDOW (STICKING WITH NBM MAX POP 65-80%),
BUT DETAILS CONCERNING WINTER WX/PTYPE/ACCUMULATION ARE STILL
NOT CLEAR AT THIS RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY COULD REACH THE 50F MARK FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS MON-THU.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDS CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. VSBYS
HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH FEWER SITES DROPPING BELOW 1 SM AS
OF 00Z. UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
MTNS (KJST AND KBFD). CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 1000 FT BY 04-06Z FRI WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS HOLDING ON
THERE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT IPT, AOO AND UNV (60% CHC) PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 02Z AND 15Z FRI BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS FRI AFTERNOON.
AIRFIELDS IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH
LESS THAN A 40% CHC OF MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, BUT SOME
G20KT LINGER FRI EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NW.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/COLBERT
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