594
FXUS61 KCTP 210226
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
926 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF.
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP.
* A COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN - AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW -
DURING THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE LAURELS THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" POSSIBLE ON RIDGETOPS IN WESTERN SOMERSET
CO. IMPACTS SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL KEEP THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING (7AM EXPIRATION TIME).
THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO BETWEEN -5F
AND +5F ACROSS THE BOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW PIXELS OF
-10F ARE SEEN OVER POTTER AND SOMERSET COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY
ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THESE LOW VALUES TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER
ADVY (POTTER NEEDS TO GET TO -15F ANYWAY).
GUSTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S (AND 40-ISH ON THE HILLTOPS OF THE
LAURELS) WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE DAYTIME FRIDAY, DESPITE A
FALLING INVERSION SINCE THE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS. CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TEAM UP WITH THE DOWNSLOPE TO BUMP MAX
TEMPS 5-6F OVER THURS VALUES IN THE SE, BUT ONLY A DEG OR SO NW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH CPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A SHORT TERM BOTTOM FOR
TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE +SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. ALOFT,
BROAD/ELONGATED TROUGHING WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH SOUTHEASTWARD
EXTENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 40S. DESPITE THE MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUNDAY WILL STILL END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO MIDDLE
40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST,
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PA, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY TAKEAWAYS: MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24 - THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27
------------------------------------------------------------
*WARMING TREND TO NEAR/ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES TO END FEBRUARY
*QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS BRING PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON-TUE
*HIGHEST PROBABILITY & CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THU-FRI
A PAIR OF FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS. MAX POPS ARE ON TUESDAY BASED ON NBM AND EC/CMC/GFS
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS SHOW A LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW. WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THIS TIME WINDOW (STICKING WITH NBM MAX POP 65-80%),
BUT DETAILS CONCERNING WINTER WX/PTYPE/ACCUMULATION ARE STILL
NOT CLEAR AT THIS RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY COULD REACH THE 50F MARK FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS MON-THU.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDS CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. VSBYS
HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH FEWER SITES DROPPING BELOW 1 SM AS
OF 00Z. UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
MTNS (KJST AND KBFD). CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 1000 FT BY 04-06Z FRI WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS HOLDING ON
THERE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT IPT, AOO AND UNV (60% CHC) PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 02Z AND 15Z FRI BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS FRI AFTERNOON.
AIRFIELDS IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH
LESS THAN A 40% CHC OF MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, BUT SOME
G20KT LINGER FRI EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NW.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/COLBERT
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