746
FXUS61 KCTP 220349
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1049 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP.
* FAST-MOVING AND MOISTURE-POOR SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES DURING THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE CLEARING INCHES ITS WAY WESTWARD ALOMOST TO CENTRAL
PA. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SO THE CLOUDS MAY NOT GO AWAY BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE
CLEARING WILL HELP THE TEMPS GET INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE. THE
WIND ONLY DROPS OFF LATE TONIGHT IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. SO,
THE TEMPS MAY STAY UP IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE
BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE RULE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AND BLOCKS OFF ALL GULF
MOISTURE. A COUPLE OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND THE WIND WON'T VEER ENOUGH TO BRING LAKE EFFECT
INTO THE CWA. MAXES RISE 5-10F ON SAT VS FRI, AND ANOTHER 3-5F
FOR SUN AFTN. MINS STAY MAINLY IN THE 20S THEN BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS. EXPECT THE SKIES TO NOT BE CLEAR FOR TOO LONG DURING ANY
STRETCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DUE TO THE REPEATED SHOTS OF
LIFT AND MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT AS THOSE TROUGHS PASS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
MAIN CHANGES WAS TO TREND A BIT DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
ALSO TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER LATER NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING
ANY LARGE STORMS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SHOWS
A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN AS WE HEAD OUT LATE
FEBRUARY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE STATIONED TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY HAD RECENTLY KEPT MENTIONS OF PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER,
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH PROGRESSION IN MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NIXED PRECIPITATION MENTIONS ON MONDAY. IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS TO MAKE WAY INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, IT WOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO RAIN AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ON TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ENHANCED LIFT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER (BUT STILL NOT
OPTIMAL) MOISTURE, THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS; HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
(AND SOUNDINGS) HAVE OUTLINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW
ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A WINTRY MIX (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO MENTION ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SNOW) ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RAIN AT ONSET THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE VERY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX COMING THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING/CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
CIGS AT UNV AND AOO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO IPT NOW.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS THIS EVENING.
00Z TAFS SENT.
LOOKING AT A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT SITES LIKE
BFD AND JST. FURTHER EAST AT SITES LIKE UNV AND AOO, CIGS
WILL BE CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT. ACROSS THE EAST AT SITES IPT, MDT, AND LNS
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, LOOKING AT WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL HELP BRING AND END TO LOWER CIGS
AT BFD AND JST BY LATE MORNING.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, LOWER CIGS COULD WORK BACK INTO BFD AND PERHAPS
JST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
MON...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NW.
TUE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AND BECOME AREA WIDE.
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/NPB
AVIATION...MARTIN
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