503
FXUS61 KCTP 220840
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
340 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, PRECEDED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
INTO PA EARLY THIS MORNING, PROVIDING THE REGION WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS OVER ALLEGHENIES, WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A LINGERING BREEZE
ELSEWHERE, SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER HAVE DECOUPLED AND COULD FALL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES BY DAWN.
EXPECT DAYBREAK READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPORTING
MILDER AIR INTO PA. A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND LATE SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. A RELATIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE E GRT LKS IS ALSO LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW MTNS. ON BALANCE,
MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND SUNDAY
OVER THE NW MTNS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY AND NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
MAIN CHANGES WAS TO TREND A BIT DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
ALSO TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER LATER NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING
ANY LARGE STORMS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SHOWS
A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN AS WE HEAD OUT LATE
FEBRUARY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE STATIONED TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY HAD RECENTLY KEPT MENTIONS OF PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER,
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH PROGRESSION IN MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NIXED PRECIPITATION MENTIONS ON MONDAY. IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS TO MAKE WAY INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, IT WOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO RAIN AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ON TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ENHANCED LIFT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER (BUT STILL NOT
OPTIMAL) MOISTURE, THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS; HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
(AND SOUNDINGS) HAVE OUTLINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW
ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A WINTRY MIX (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO MENTION ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SNOW) ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RAIN AT ONSET THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE VERY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX COMING THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING/CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NNE-SSW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CRESTING OVER
WESTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEAN, WNW LLVL FLOW CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE BKN-OVC MVFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS THE SHALLOW, LIMITED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
OFF LAKE ERIE WAS LIFTED, COOLED AND CONDENSED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING OF THE AIR
PROVIDED SKC-SCT STRATO CU CLOUDS.
A WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND WILL BRING VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES AT KBFD.
A 6 HOUR PERIOD (BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z SATURDAY) OF
MODERATELY GUSTY (20-25 MPH) WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT,
RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT FOR KBFD
WHERE OCNL MVFR WILL BE FOUND.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN/NPB
AVIATION...LAMBERT
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