468
FXUS61 KCTP 221357
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
857 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, PRECEDED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
MID MORNING UPDATE.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST. FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURE AS AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
FAIR WEATHER TODAY, WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPORTING MILDER
AIR INTO PA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING OVER THE NW MTNS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
BRIGHTENING LATER TODAY OVER THE NW COUNTIES, BUT A RELATIVE
SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE E GRT LKS IS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, THE APPROACH OF A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD NOTHING MORE THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY, TRANSLATING TO HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S OVER THE N MTNS,
TO AROUND 40F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH PA
LATE SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON BALANCE, MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
OVER THE NW MTNS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NBM MAXTEMPS SUNDAY, WHICH
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, TO
THE LOW AND MID 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MARKEDLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA MONDAY,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP. MIXING DOWN PROGGED 900MB TEMPS
YIELDS EXPECTED MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N
MTNS, TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF PA MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ON TUESDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE BRINGING ENHANCED LIFT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER (BUT
STILL NOT OPTIMAL) MOISTURE, THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS; HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE (AND SOUNDINGS) HAVE OUTLINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET
SNOW ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A WINTRY MIX (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO MENTION ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SNOW) ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RAIN AT ONSET THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE VERY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX COMING THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING/CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID MORNING UPDATE.
OTHER THAN THE NORTHWEST PART OF CENTRAL PA, SKIES ARE CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION, A LOT BETTER DAY THAN A WEEK AGO WITH THE
WINTER STORM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NNE-SSW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CRESTING OVER
WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. WSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE AN BKN-OVC MVFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS THE LIMITED, SHALLOW, NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
OFF LAKE ERIE WAS LIFTED, COOLED AND CONDENSED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING OF THE AIR
PROVIDED SKC-SCT STRATO CU CLOUDS.
A WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR MVFR STRATOCU CIGS TO LINGER FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 2 HOURS
AT KJST, LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AROUND 14Z, WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LAST TO LEAVE KBFD - AROUND 16Z TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SE FROM
THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF A FEW FLURRIES AT KBFD. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AT KBFD WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT MORE
TO THE WEST AND INCREASE IN GUSTINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH.
A 6 HOUR PERIOD (BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 14Z SATURDAY) OF
MODERATELY GUSTY (20-25 MPH) WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT,
RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT FOR KBFD
WHERE OCNL MVFR WILL BE FOUND.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/NPB
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
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