756
FXUS61 KCTP 221852
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
LIKE LATE DECEMBER AND LATE JANUARY, WE ARE GETTING A BREAK
FROM THE COLD AND STORMY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, AS WE NEAR
THE END OF THE MONTH. SEEM TO BE ON A 4 WEEK CYCLE WITH THESE
MILD SPELLS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS GONE NOW, JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME VARIATION FROM MODEL AND FROM DAY TO DAY, IN REGARD TO
IF ANY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE LATE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN. TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
PRIOR TO THIS, JUST SOME LOW END CHANGES FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW,
THUS WEIGHTED THE FCST ON THE DRY SIDE.
EDGE DEWPOINTS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THINGS, GIVEN THE CURRENT
AIRMASS, AND EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
AIRMASS ON SUNDAY.
MORE INFORMATION ON THESE FEATURES BELOW.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH PA
LATE SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON BALANCE, MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
OVER THE NW MTNS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NBM MAXTEMPS SUNDAY, WHICH
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, TO
THE LOW AND MID 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MARKEDLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA MONDAY,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP. MIXING DOWN PROGGED 900MB TEMPS
YIELDS EXPECTED MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N
MTNS, TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF PA MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ON TUESDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE BRINGING ENHANCED LIFT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER (BUT
STILL NOT OPTIMAL) MOISTURE, THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS; HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE (AND SOUNDINGS) HAVE OUTLINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET
SNOW ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A WINTRY MIX (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO MENTION ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SNOW) ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RAIN AT ONSET THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE VERY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX COMING THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING/CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS SENT.
LOW CLOUDS GONE OVER THE NORTHWEST, SO LOOKING AT JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
AS WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT, SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BFD. LESS LIKELY AT JST. OTHER SITES EXPECTED TO STAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS BORDERLINE OVERNIGHT, SO LEFT
OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS AT BFD EARLY SUNDAY WOULD BURN OFF LATER
IN THE THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/NPB
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page