894
FXUS61 KCTP 222337
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
LIKE LATE DECEMBER AND LATE JANUARY, WE ARE GETTING A BREAK
FROM THE COLD AND STORMY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, AS WE NEAR
THE END OF THE MONTH. SEEM TO BE ON A 4 WEEK CYCLE WITH THESE
MILD SPELLS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS GONE NOW, JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME VARIATION FROM MODEL AND FROM DAY TO DAY, IN REGARD TO
IF ANY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE LATE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN. TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
PRIOR TO THIS, JUST SOME LOW END CHANGES FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW,
THUS WEIGHTED THE FCST ON THE DRY SIDE.
EDGE DEWPOINTS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THINGS, GIVEN THE CURRENT
AIRMASS, AND EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
AIRMASS ON SUNDAY.
MORE INFORMATION ON THESE FEATURES BELOW.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH PA
LATE SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON BALANCE, MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
OVER THE NW MTNS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NBM MAXTEMPS SUNDAY, WHICH
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, TO
THE LOW AND MID 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MARKEDLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA MONDAY,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP. MIXING DOWN PROGGED 900MB TEMPS
YIELDS EXPECTED MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N
MTNS, TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF PA MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WET SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AS A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING LARGER
THAN A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN EVENT
ENDING AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH PA NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCE
POPS AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MILD TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HREF SHOWS A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT BFD AND JST
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW 15 TO 20 KNOT
GUSTS BEING REPORTED, THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS BUT
HAVE HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
THE 30 KNOT CRITERIA. THE THREAT FOR ANY LLWS WILL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/GARTNER
AVIATION...BAUCO
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