015
FXUS61 KCTP 230331
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
FAIR AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENJOYED THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS SFC RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE FROM
THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
STRENGHTEN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING FURTHER MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AGAIN ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER,
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN PARTS OF MCKEAN,
POTTER AND TIOGA COUNTY. CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF RT 6, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AVERAGE
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FAIR AND MILDER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
A SHEARING COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GLAKS. THE FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS KEEPS
FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.
FAST MOVING CLIPER SYSTEM IS ESPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A FROPA CHANGING -SHRA TO
SHSN BY THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR MAY
BRUSH THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GLAKS BEFORE LIFTING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING PENNSYLVANIA (FOR NOW) IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS AND BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF MILD TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PA.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HREF SHOWS A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT BFD AND JST
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW 15 TO 20 KNOT
GUSTS BEING REPORTED, THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS BUT
HAVE HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
THE 30 KNOT CRITERIA. THE THREAT FOR ANY LLWS WILL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/GARTNER
AVIATION...BAUCO
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