536
FXUS61 KCTP 230828
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, PRECEDED BY THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS LK ONTARIO. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY BUT ONLY PATCHY
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PA. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER WILL HOLD TONIGHT.
AN ACTIVE WEST WIND AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MODEST DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT
READINGS AT DAYBREAK TO BE IN THE 20S.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER PA WILL ENSURE FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
LATER TODAY. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE N MTNS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED THIS AFTERNOON TO 900MB, WHERE
TEMPS AROUND -4C/-5C SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES, TO THE MID 40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FAIRLY POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS PA
THIS EVENING. LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ITS EFFECTS TO A
PERIOD OF OVERCAST SKIES AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER, WOULD'T RULE OUT QUICK DUSTING OVER THE NW
MTNS, WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS POPS OF AROUND 15PCT, DUE
TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. BREAKING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
FAST-MOVING, MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF PA MONDAY PM, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
PROBABLY NO PRECIPITATION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER PA TUESDAY,
BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE N MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF TUESDAY IS GENERALLY <0.05 INCHES.
A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST
COAST AND A DYING COLD FRONT OVER THE N GRT LKS WILL FLOOD THE
REGION WITH MILD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES
RISE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS KEEPS
FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.
FAST MOVING CLIPER SYSTEM IS ESPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A FROPA CHANGING -SHRA TO
SHSN BY THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR MAY
BRUSH THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GLAKS BEFORE LIFTING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING PENNSYLVANIA (FOR NOW) IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS AND BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF MILD TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PA.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HREF SHOWS A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT BFD AND JST
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW 15 TO 20 KNOT
GUSTS BEING REPORTED, THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS BUT
HAVE HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
THE 30 KNOT CRITERIA. THE THREAT FOR ANY LLWS WILL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR (NW). NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...RAIN SHOWERS (AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN) WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/GARTNER
AVIATION...BAUCO
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