500
FXUS61 KCTP 231817
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK, PRECEDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SKIES WILL TEND
TO CLEAR LATE, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, AS THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY.
AFTER A MILD AFTERNOON, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
BELOW FREEZING AFTER DARK, GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIRMASS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNOFF YESTERDAY AND TODAY, IT
IS LIMITED, GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND THE LOW
DEWPOINT AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT SEEING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR
SNOW BEFORE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY, GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW
MIXED IN, BUT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD FOR
LATE FEBRUARY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SEASONAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RELATIVELY MILD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK FOR SOUTHERN PA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
A LAGGING 500MB TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PREDOMINATELY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO BE
+8-12C THURSDAY. THUS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR US
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THROUGH PUSHES DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY, BUT WINTER WILL
MAKE A RETURN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAFS SENT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK
WIND SHIFT LINE WILL TEND TO KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS AT BFD
AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR LLWS TONIGHT.
PERHAPS A HIGHER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT. THUS NO LLWS IN
THIS SET OF TAFS.
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.
MORE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, AS COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
WED...VFR/NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
FRI...PARTIAL CLEARING.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MARTIN
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