769
FXUS61 KCTP 272001
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
*INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
*BREEZY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
TIGHTENS UP ACRS CENTRAL PA. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE
RETREATING NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AS SOME
OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER VS. LAST NIGHT IN THE 30-40F RANGE WITH
COLDEST SPOTS IN THE VALLEYS/WARMEST SPOTS ON THE RIDGETOPS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEHIND A BROAD DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIRES AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCE OF A SFC WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SMALL SCALE
VORTMAX MOVING EASTWARD FROM IL INTO PA BY 00Z/SATURDAY. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE 50-60F RANGE ADDING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES DAY
OVER DAY.
THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUASI STATIONARY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER ON SATURDAY. THIS PLACES CENTRAL PA IN
A VERY MILD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY A BREEZY/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES +15-25 DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD TERRITORY.
WE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH WITH FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO 80 DEGREES. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL.
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASING ODDS FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS 50-60F SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH SOME RECORD HI MINIMUMS DEFINITELY IN PLAY. SURGING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
T-STORMS) INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE
MID 60S/70S OR +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW-
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH THE WARM FRONT STATIONED NORTH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA INTO MONDAY. CLOUD COVER HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
LIMIT MAXTS ON MONDAY; HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA COUPLED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. RECENT FORECAST OUTLINES
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT
MULTIPLE FORECAST CYCLES. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR) AS OUTLINED IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S D5 15% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THERE DOES STILL REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT; HOWEVER, SO THIS THREAT COULD
REASONABLY EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWARD/WESTWARD AS DETAILS COME
MORE INTO FOCUS.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
BENEFICIAL, WITH PWATS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1.20-1.50" ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK SHUTOFF FOR PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA. ANY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY REMAINS A
LOWER CONFIDENCE (~10-20%) SOLUTION, SO HAVE NIXED ALL MENTIONS,
ESPECIALLY WITH LOWER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY, WITH MAXTS ON TUESDAY PLUMMETING 15-20F AREA
WIDE; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TREND SLIGHTLY (5-10F)
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT RENEWED CHANCES OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS TIMEFRAME SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (~100% CONFIDENCE) AT ALL CENTRAL
PA AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. IN THE NEAR-TERM (THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY), MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY WINDS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GLAMP/HREF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 15-25
KNOTS. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, EASTERN (UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS) AIRFIELDS
WILL RETAIN HIGH (~80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED CEILINGS CONTINUING
TO STAY WELL-ABOVE 3000FT AGL. AIRFIELD OF MOST CONCERN, BASED
OFF OF RAP RH CROSS-SECTIONS WILL REMAIN BFD/JST AS LOW-LEVEL
CEILINGS BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS SEEM TO BE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, WITH HREF/GLAMP
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT (SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO CLOUD BASES ~1500 TO 2500 FT AGL) IN MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. AOO REMAINS THE AIRFIELD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY, AS
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS POTENTIAL TO KEEP RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS OUT OF THE AIRFIELD UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY, WHICH
SEEMS LIKE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE (~70% CONFIDENCE) SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME BASED ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY
DRY LIGHT DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF
WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. A COORDINATED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THIS RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 7-8PM.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...NPB
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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