407
FXUS61 KCTP 280131
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
*INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
*BREEZY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE
PASSING WELL NORTH OF PA. UPSTREAM RADAR INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT NBM MINTEMPS
SLIGHTLY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT DAYBREAK
READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
RURAL VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, WHERE PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
GREATEST IN VICINITY OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING INTO THE E
GRT LKS.
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BASED ON
LATEST HOURLY NBM TEMPS AND GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES, HAVE
LOWERED THE MAXTEMP FORECAST AREAWIDE FRIDAY, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50F OVER THE N MTNS, TO AROUND 60F
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DWINDLING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING. DEEP MIXING IN THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD THEN RESULT IN A BREEZY AND VERY WARM
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED TO NEAR 800MB, SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PERHAPS THE LOW 80S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
EXPECT A CLOUDIER AND WETTER SUNDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE AND PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF +2-3SD
PWATS, SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD HI MINIMUMS DEFINITELY IN PLAY. MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO, AS THE ENTIRE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER UPSTATE NY.
HOWEVER, THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, WHERE MAXTEMPS IN THE
65-70F RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED. FURTHER EAST, NBM MAX TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW-
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH THE WARM FRONT STATIONED NORTH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA INTO MONDAY. CLOUD COVER HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
LIMIT MAXTS ON MONDAY; HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA COUPLED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. RECENT FORECAST OUTLINES
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT
MULTIPLE FORECAST CYCLES. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR) AS OUTLINED IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S D5 15% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THERE DOES STILL REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT; HOWEVER, SO THIS THREAT COULD
REASONABLY EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWARD/WESTWARD AS DETAILS COME
MORE INTO FOCUS.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
BENEFICIAL, WITH PWATS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1.20-1.50" ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK SHUTOFF FOR PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA. ANY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY REMAINS A
LOWER CONFIDENCE (~10-20%) SOLUTION, SO HAVE NIXED ALL MENTIONS,
ESPECIALLY WITH LOWER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY, WITH MAXTS ON TUESDAY PLUMMETING 15-20F AREA
WIDE; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TREND SLIGHTLY (5-10F)
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT RENEWED CHANCES OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS TIMEFRAME SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (~100% CONFIDENCE) AT ALL CENTRAL
PA AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. IN THE NEAR-TERM (THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY), MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY WINDS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GLAMP/HREF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 15-25
KNOTS. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, EASTERN (UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS) AIRFIELDS
WILL RETAIN HIGH (~80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED CEILINGS CONTINUING
TO STAY WELL-ABOVE 3000FT AGL. AIRFIELD OF MOST CONCERN, BASED
OFF OF RAP RH CROSS-SECTIONS WILL REMAIN BFD/JST AS LOW-LEVEL
CEILINGS BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS SEEM TO BE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, WITH HREF/GLAMP
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT (SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO CLOUD BASES ~1500 TO 2500 FT AGL) IN MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. AOO REMAINS THE AIRFIELD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY, AS
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS POTENTIAL TO KEEP RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS OUT OF THE AIRFIELD UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY, WHICH
SEEMS LIKE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE (~70% CONFIDENCE) SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME BASED ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY
DRY LIGHT DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF
WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. A COORDINATED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THIS RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 7-8PM.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...NPB
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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