611
FXUS61 KCTP 280902
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
*INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
*BREEZY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT CONTRIBUTED TO DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DAYBREAK READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, TO PERHAPS THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INTO
SOUTHWEST PA AND THE AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, WHERE PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
GREATEST IN VICINITY OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING INTO THE E
GRT LKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF I-99, WITH UP
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
TENTH OF AN INCHE EAST OF I-99.
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BASED ON
LATEST HOURLY NBM TEMPS AND GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES, HAVE
LOWERED THE MAXTEMP FORECAST AREAWIDE FRIDAY, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50F OVER THE N MTNS, TO AROUND 60F
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DWINDLING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING US THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL VERY MILD NIGHTS TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD THEN RESULT IN A BREEZY
AND VERY WARM SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED TO NEAR
800MB, SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS THE LOW 80S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE
LAST FALL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH,
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THOUGH A
FEW LIGHT PASSING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
THANKS TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDINESS. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
PLAY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CLOUDIER SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH
A PLUME OF +2-3SD PWATS, SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-99 IN A MARGINAL RISK (AND EXTREME WESTERN PA IN A SLIGHT
RISK LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL FORTUNATELY
ONLY RECEIVE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BRING SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM FRONT OVER UPSTATE
NY. HOWEVER, THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A
BIT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, WHERE MAXTEMPS IN
THE 65-70F RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED. FURTHER EAST, NBM MAX TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE THE MILDEST OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE
60S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR
RECORD KEEPING PURPOSES, THE LOW TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AT 11:59PM MONDAY NIGHT, SO THE CONSIDERABLE WARMTH
ON MONDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE FULLY APPRECIATED IN THE DAILY
ALMANAC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRACK A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE CAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE, WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS. LATEST ENSEMBLE
PLUMES INDICATE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL MONDAY OF AROUND A HALF
INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL
TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PA BY NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN
ALONG THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY
WED PM, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM MAXTEMPS WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY
BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY THICKEN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF UNV AS DRIER AIR
TO THE EAST WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM IMPACTING IPT,
MDT, AND LNS. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO PREVENT CEILINGS FROM
DIPPING BELOW VFR AT MOST SITES, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT BFD AND JST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
BFD. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER NORTHWEST PA COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND BFD AS WELL.
SHOWERS QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z AND CEILINGS RETURN TO
VFR AT ALL AIRFIELDS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THIS POINT WILL BE
LLWS AS A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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