834
FXUS61 KCTP 281827
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
*MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING; MILD/MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
*BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH WITH
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS; TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE RECORDS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF/SEASONAL COOL DOWN FOR
APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT - DRIVING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HIRES MODELS SHOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES
AFTER 03-06UTC/11PM-2AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING 7AM WILL BE
LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST PLACES WITH MAX AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20"
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL VERY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ENDLESS MTNS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA (+15 TO +25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSEASONABLY MILD TO RECORD CHALLENGING WARM START TO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL.
SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LATEST HIRES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THANKS TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED
ALONG/NORTH THE PA-NY BORDER.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND MINRH FALLING TOWARD
30% IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTRICTS FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WX SECTION). THE VERY DEEP
MIXING SOUNDING PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY SW WIND ARE
TWO HALLMARK INGREDIENTS TO GET VERY WARM TEMPS THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND WE WERE KEEN TO TREND WARMER FOR MAXT CLOSE TO THE
50-75TH PERCENTILE NBM - WHICH MAY NOT BE BULLISH ENOUGH! FCST
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE 70-80F RANGE OR NEAR DAILY RECORD MAXES
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (LOW 80S FCST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY). SEE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 50-60F RANGE. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLAY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF +2-3SD PWATS,
SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED LOCATIONS WEST OF I-99 IN A MARGINAL RISK OR
LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR CHANGES WITH THE 1930UTC D3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY. MORE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT VS.
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND
(RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE 55-60F
RANGE ACROSS CPA OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HI
MINIMUM TEMPS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRACK A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE CAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE, WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS. LATEST ENSEMBLE
PLUMES INDICATE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL MONDAY OF AROUND A HALF
INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL
TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PA BY NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN
ALONG THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY
WED PM, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM MAXTEMPS WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY
BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AND GRADUALLY THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN WEST OF UNV AS DRIER AIR TO THE EAST WILL
PREVENT WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM IMPACTING IPT, MDT, AND LNS UNTIL
~21Z. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO PREVENT CEILINGS FROM DIPPING
BELOW VFR AT MOST SITES, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT BFD AND JST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT BFD. WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHWEST PA COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND BFD AS WELL.
SHOWERS QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER 03Z AND CEILINGS RETURN TO
VFR AT ALL AIRFIELDS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THIS POINT WILL BE
LLWS AS A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SPS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH PA DCNR/BOF FIRE WX PARTNERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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