179
FXUS61 KCTP 282135
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
*MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING; MILD/MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
*BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH WITH
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS; TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE RECORDS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF/SEASONAL COOL DOWN FOR
APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT - DRIVING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HIRES MODELS SHOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES
AFTER 03-06UTC/11PM-2AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING 7AM WILL BE
LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST PLACES WITH MAX AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20"
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL VERY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE ENDLESS MTNS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA (+15 TO +25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSEASONABLY MILD TO RECORD CHALLENGING WARM START TO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL.
SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LATEST HIRES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THANKS TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED
ALONG/NORTH THE PA-NY BORDER.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND MINRH FALLING TOWARD
30% IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTRICTS FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WX SECTION). THE VERY DEEP
MIXING SOUNDING PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY SW WIND ARE
TWO HALLMARK INGREDIENTS TO GET VERY WARM TEMPS THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND WE WERE KEEN TO TREND WARMER FOR MAXT CLOSE TO THE
50-75TH PERCENTILE NBM - WHICH MAY NOT BE BULLISH ENOUGH! FCST
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE 70-80F RANGE OR NEAR DAILY RECORD MAXES
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (LOW 80S FCST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY). SEE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 50-60F RANGE. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLAY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF +2-3SD PWATS,
SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED LOCATIONS WEST OF I-99 IN A MARGINAL RISK OR
LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR CHANGES WITH THE 1930UTC D3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY. MORE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT VS.
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND
(RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE 55-60F
RANGE ACROSS CPA OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HI
MINIMUM TEMPS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK A STRONG SURFACE STATIONED
OVER QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST OF CENTRAL PA. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED, ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING (NOTABLY THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER COMPARED TO
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE); HOWEVER, BEST TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AFTER 12PM MONDAY. DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING CLOSE TO 60F ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND MOISTURE,
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT; HOWEVER, EPS/GEFS MEMBERS STILL DO
OUTLINE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S D4 15% CONTOUR, WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SOME SIGNALS EXIST THAT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT COULD OCCUR (OUTLINED
IN ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE) WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION TO INCLUDE FURTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES TOP OUT GENERALLY AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MONDAY'S SYSTEM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BENEFICIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THAT REMAIN UNDER D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME, NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED DROUGHT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A LOW PWAT AIRMASS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (DUE TO AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) ENTERS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATER STAGES OF THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES SHIFTING ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
APRIL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD COVER HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AT JST IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 22Z FRIDAY WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TOWARDS MVFR POSSIBLE (~30-40% PROBABILITY) AT BFD/JST. FURTHER
EAST, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO OUTLINE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS, THUS VFR
PREVAILS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~70-80%)
CONFIDENCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA, MAKING WAY INTO IPT/MDT/LNS CLOSER TO ~22Z FRIDAY WITH
MODERATE (~50-60%) CONFIDENCE. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
FURTHER EAST IS NOT PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER WEST, THUS IPT IS MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAYS OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNALS FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD HAS
DWINDLED GIVEN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS; HOWEVER, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE THESE OUT GIVEN RAP RH CROSS-SECTIONS OUTLINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE NEAR-TERM, ESPECIALLY IN
THE 00-03Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
COME TO AN END AFTER 03Z AND CEILINGS RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
AIRFIELDS. FOCUS FOR AVIATION CONCERNS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY TURN
TOWARDS AN ENHANCEMENT OF A 50KT LLJ, WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH
(~60-70%) CONFIDENCE IN LLWS PARAMETERS BEING MET AREA WIDE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS W PA DURING LATE PM HOURS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SPS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH PA DCNR/BOF FIRE WX PARTNERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO/NPB
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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