643
FXUS61 KCTP 290024
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
*MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING;
MILD/MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
*BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH WITH
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS; TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE RECORDS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF/SEASONAL COOL DOWN FOR
APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. THE NOSE OF A 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE NY BORDER THE REST OF THE EVENING, SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
FOCUSED UP THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH THE RETREATING 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS BREAKING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WITH DAYBREAK READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE N
MTNS, TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DEEP MIXING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED
TO NEAR 800MB, SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS THE LOW 80S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THESE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA (SEE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE INFO).
MODEL RH PROFILES CURRENTLY SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER, MORE CLOUD COVER AND
THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT OVER UPSTATE NY.
A TSRA CAN'T EVEN BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER, WHERE
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND MINRH FALLING TOWARD
30% IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTRICTS FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WX SECTION).
A VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER UPSTATE
NY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW MTNS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50-60F RANGE.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF
+2SD PWATS, SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY, FOCUSED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY. MORE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT VS.
SATURDAY.
SURGING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE
GRT LKS SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND (RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE
55-60F RANGE ACROSS CPA OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORD HI MINIMUM TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF PA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPREAD IS NOTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING (NOTABLY THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER COMPARED TO
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE); HOWEVER, BEST TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AFTER 12PM MONDAY. DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING CLOSE TO 60F ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND MOISTURE,
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED MID- LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT; HOWEVER, EPS/GEFS MEMBERS STILL DO
OUTLINE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S D4 15% CONTOUR, WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SOME SIGNALS EXIST THAT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT COULD OCCUR (OUTLINED
IN ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE) WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION TO INCLUDE FURTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ENSEMBLE PLUMES TOP OUT GENERALLY AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MONDAY'S SYSTEM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BENEFICIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THAT REMAIN UNDER D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME, NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED DROUGHT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A LOW PWAT AIRMASS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (DUE TO AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) ENTERS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATER STAGES OF THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES SHIFTING ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
APRIL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD COVER HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AT JST IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 22Z FRIDAY WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TOWARDS MVFR POSSIBLE (~30-40% PROBABILITY) AT BFD/JST. FURTHER
EAST, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO OUTLINE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS, THUS VFR
PREVAILS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~70-80%)
CONFIDENCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA, MAKING WAY INTO IPT/MDT/LNS CLOSER TO ~22Z FRIDAY WITH
MODERATE (~50-60%) CONFIDENCE. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
FURTHER EAST IS NOT PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER WEST, THUS IPT IS MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAYS OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNALS FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD HAS
DWINDLED GIVEN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS; HOWEVER, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE THESE OUT GIVEN RAP RH CROSS-SECTIONS OUTLINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE NEAR-TERM, ESPECIALLY IN
THE 00-03Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
COME TO AN END AFTER 03Z AND CEILINGS RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
AIRFIELDS. FOCUS FOR AVIATION CONCERNS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY TURN
TOWARDS AN ENHANCEMENT OF A 50KT LLJ, WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH
(~60-70%) CONFIDENCE IN LLWS PARAMETERS BEING MET AREA WIDE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS W PA DURING LATE PM HOURS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SPS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH PA DCNR/BOF FIRE WX PARTNERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO/NPB
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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