933
FXUS61 KCTP 290559
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
*MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING;
MILD/MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
*BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH WITH
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS; TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE RECORDS
*MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF/SEASONAL COOL DOWN FOR
APRIL FOOL'S DAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. THE NOSE OF A 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE NY BORDER THE REST OF THE EVENING, SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
FOCUSED UP THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY AROUND 05Z WITH
THE RETREATING 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS BREAKING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WITH DAYBREAK READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE N
MTNS, TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DEEP MIXING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED
TO NEAR 800MB, SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS THE LOW 80S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THESE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA (SEE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE INFO).
MODEL RH PROFILES CURRENTLY SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER, MORE CLOUD COVER AND
THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT OVER UPSTATE NY.
A TSRA CAN'T EVEN BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER, WHERE
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND MINRH FALLING TOWARD
30% IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTRICTS FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WX SECTION).
A VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER UPSTATE
NY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW MTNS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50-60F RANGE.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF
+2SD PWATS, SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY, FOCUSED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY. MORE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT VS.
SATURDAY.
SURGING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE
GRT LKS SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND (RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE
55-60F RANGE ACROSS CPA OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORD HI MINIMUM TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST MEAN GEFS/EPS SOLUTIONS TRACK A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW NORTH OF PA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING HEIGHTS,
COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE, SUPPORTS
HIGH POPS OF NEAR 100PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY PM. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-800J/KG RANGE, WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS. LATEST
ENSEMBLE PLUMES INDICATE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL MONDAY OF AROUND A
HALF INCH, WHICH WOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A LOW PWAT AIRMASS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEST OF PA
THROUGH THE GRT LKS NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN ALONG THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY WED PM, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. A
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM
MAXTEMPS SLIGHTLY WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA NEXT FRIDAY. A
POTENTIAL WAVE ON THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN LINGERING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT, BUT IMPACTS AT AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 08Z AS
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS LLWS AS A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
OVER THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND BFD WILL BE THE SITE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS W PA DURING LATE PM HOURS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SPS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH PA DCNR/BOF FIRE WX PARTNERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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