934
FXUS61 KCTP 291824
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS; OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
CHALLENGE RECORDS.
* COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
* A BRIEF/SEASONAL COOL DOWN FOR APRIL FOOL'S DAY PRECEDES
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR APRIL SHOWERS AS THE
UNSETTLED/ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
DEEP MIXING WITH ARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE THE
EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST CURRENTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST FALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME MIXED TO NEAR 800MB, SUPPORTIVE OF THESE
ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA (SEE
CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE INFO).
A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PA/NY BORDER
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 35MPH WIND GUSTS
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP MIXING TAPS INTO THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. A FEW GUSTS OVER 40MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
FACT, ALTOONA GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS JUST BEFORE 7AM THIS MORNING,
ILLUSTRATING THE DYNAMIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
MODEL RH PROFILES CURRENTLY SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER, MORE CLOUD COVER AND
THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT OVER UPSTATE NY.
A TSRA CAN'T EVEN BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER, WHERE
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SUCH DEEP MIXING, DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOWARD 30% IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTRICTS FOR A FEW
HOURS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION). RAINFALL YESTERDAY WAS NOT ENOUGH
TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FUEL MOISTURE, SO A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS IN EFFECT. NO DOUBT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE COMMON TODAY WITH IT BEING MOSTLY DRY AND THE WARMEST DAY YET
THIS YEAR.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
A VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER UPSTATE
NY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW MTNS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50-60F RANGE.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF
+2SD PWATS, SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY, FOCUSED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY - LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE PHRASE DROUGHT
BEGETS DROUGHT CERTAINLY RINGS TRUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED WARM/STNRY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY. MORE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT VS.
SATURDAY.
SURGING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE
GRT LKS SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND (RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE
55-60F RANGE ACROSS CPA OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORD HI MINIMUM TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING'S
LOW TEMPERATURE MARK WILL LIKELY BE ERASED MONDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LATEST MEAN GEFS/EPS SOLUTIONS TRACK A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW NORTH OF PA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING HEIGHTS,
COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE, SUPPORTS
HIGH POPS OF NEAR 100PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY PM. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT
MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN THE
200-800J/KG RANGE, WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS. LATEST ENSEMBLE PLUMES INDICATE
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL MONDAY OF AROUND A HALF INCH, WHICH WOULD
BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A LOW PWAT AIRMASS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEST OF PA
THROUGH THE GRT LKS NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN ALONG THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY WED PM, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. A
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM
MAXTEMPS SLIGHTLY WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA NEXT FRIDAY. A
POTENTIAL WAVE ON THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN LINGERING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH BFD, JST, AND AOO MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL.
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. LLWS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY N MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS W PA DURING LATE PM HOURS.
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PA. RECENT RAINFALL ONLY AMOUNTED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF MANY PEOPLE
HEADING OUTSIDE TO ENJOY THE THE WEATHER TODAY, PLEASE AVOID ANY
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE SPARKS OR START A FIRE!
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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