798
FXUS61 KCTP 300702
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
302 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW IS
LIKELY TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER WITH THE
RETREATING 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GRT LKS
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW MTNS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50-60F RANGE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY DROPPING TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 40S OVER THE W POCONOS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS, IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK OVER PA, LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY,
FOCUSED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE NW MTNS,
WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BY
EVENING. ANY SHOWERS THAT REACH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE, REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS MOST OF THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SOME OF THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY/W
POCONOS, A REGION THAT REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STALLED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT A MAINLY CLOUDY
SUNDAY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, WHILE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURGING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE
GRT LKS SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND (RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LATEST MEAN GEFS/EPS SOLUTIONS TRACK A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW NORTH OF PA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING HEIGHTS,
COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE, SUPPORTS
HIGH POPS OF NEAR 100PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY PM. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE NW MTNS, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-800J/KG RANGE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES,
WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WIND FIELDS. LATEST EPS PLUMES INDICATE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
MONDAY OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND PERHAPS A HALF INCH OVER LANCASTER COUNTY, WHICH WOULD
BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS SHOULD BUILD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEST OF
PA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN ALONG THE
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY WED PM,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.
A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIAL WAVE ON THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. LATEST
EPS/GEFS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER WEATHER IS
LIKELY FRIDAY PM INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY PM.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO LNS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THIS A LOW PROBABILITY
OUTCOME AND VFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWN IN THE TAF. IF THESE LOW
CLOUDS WERE TO MOVE IN, THEY WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AT BFD AND JST. DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE
EAST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, WITH MDT AND LNS
POTENTIALLY REMAINING DRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT BFD
AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR BY 20Z. ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, BEFORE
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING. A 45
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER 00Z MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO LLWS DEVELOPING INITIALLY AT BFD, JST, AND UNV. ALL
OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SHEAR CONCERNS DEVELOP AFTER
06Z.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PA IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE STORMS AND WHAT IMPACTS ANY OF THE TAF
SITES SEE, THOUGH THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS AT BFD. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND
ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE, HIGHEST ACROSS SE PA (PM).
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. COLD
FROPA AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY (MINRH 30-35%) AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST) COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PA. RECENT RAINFALL ONLY AMOUNTED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF MANY PEOPLE
HEADING OUTSIDE TO ENJOY THE THE WEATHER TODAY, PLEASE AVOID ANY
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE SPARKS OR START A FIRE!
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 3/29:
HARRISBURG 86 IN 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 83 IN 1945
ALTOONA 79 IN 1977
BRADFORD 74 IN 1977
STATE COLLEGE 79 IN 1998
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/BOWEN
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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