025
FXUS61 KCTP 301436
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND PROVIDE A
FEW MORE DAYS OF RAIN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW CLOUDS MOVED INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AND POCONOS EARLY THIS
MORNING ON EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE STEEP INVERSION. THESE SHOULD
START TO GO AWAY FROM W-E AS TEMPS WARM AND MIX UP THE STABLE
LAYER. TEMPS ALREADY VERY MILD IN THE EAST FOR THIS TIME OF
DAY/YEAR. STILL PLENTY OF SHOWERS OVER OH AND NW PA AND FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS THEM HEADED INTO THE NW (NRN ALLEGHENIES), AND
PUSHES THEM IN TO THE LAURELS. THIS PROBABLY KEEPS TEMPS STEADY
OR EVEN DIP BY A FEW DEGS IN THE NW OVER THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE, INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
SHOULD PUSH THEM INTO THE U70S, OR EVEN 80F AGAIN TODAY.
PREV...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NIGHT CONTINUES UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTH OF A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
NORTH. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ON OUR
DOORSTEP IN EASTERN OHIO. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE EAST AND DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S EAST OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER. ELSEWHERE, DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK OVER PA, LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, FOCUSED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE NW MTNS, WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BY EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS THAT REACH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB +15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE, REACHING THE 65-75F RANGE, AS MOST OF THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SOME OF THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY/W
POCONOS, A REGION THAT REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STALLED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODEL RH PROFILES SUPPORT A MAINLY CLOUDY
SUNDAY OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, WHILE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURGING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND (RELATIVE TO CLIMO) WITH LOWS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, OR +20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS INTO
WARREN COUNTY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WINDOW FOR
STORMS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM BEFORE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LATEST MEAN GEFS/EPS SOLUTIONS TRACK A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW NORTH OF PA EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING HEIGHTS,
COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL GULF MOISTURE, SUPPORTS
HIGH POPS OF NEAR 100PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY PM. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN
TRIMMED A BIT OWING TO A SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED WARM SECTOR AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER COLD FRONT TIMING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT MONDAY, BUT MANY EPS MEMBERS STILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES
IN THE 200-800J/KG RANGE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND
FIELDS. LATEST EPS PLUMES INDICATE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL MONDAY
OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PA. THAT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST PA WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS
IN THAT PART OF THE STATE AND FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS SHOULD BUILD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN FAIR
AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS PRIOR. TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE PROGGED TO GET
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. DESPITE
THE WARMTH THIS WEEKEND, THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN WILL HELP REMIND
US THAT WE'VE STILL GOT A LONG WAY TO GO UNTIL THE RISK FOR
FROST AND FREEZE IS BEHIND US.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN TRACKS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEST OF
PA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES NEXT THURSDAY. RAIN ALONG THE
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA BY WED PM,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.
A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING NBM
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WED. HOWEVER, MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE REGION POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIAL WAVE ON THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. LATEST
EPS/GEFS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER WEATHER IS
LIKELY FRIDAY PM INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY PM.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR/LOW-END MVFR (FL009-013) BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED OVER
THE SERN TERMINALS, AND COULD HOLD FAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AT
ZER-LNS-MUI. MDT WOULD PROBABLY BE THE FIRST TO BREAK OUT, AND
LIKELY (70%) AROUND 15Z. STILL EXPECTING MIXING TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK THOSE UP/LIFT THEM LATE THIS AM, EARLY AFTN. MANY SHRA
MOVING INTO BFD ON TIME, AND THEY SHOULD STAY RAINY FOR MANY
HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO DIP TO MVFR PERIODICALLY THIS AFTN, WITH
IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE DEWPOINT RISES AND TEMP
CHILLS THROUGH THE AFTN. WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT, WE CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A CLAP OF TS, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT. THOSE SHRA OVER OH/WV/WRNPA WILL SLIDE
INTO JST BY 18Z, BUT MAY ONLY STRAFE AOO, STAYING MAINLY TO THE
N OF THEM (AND UNV, TOO).
A 45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER 00Z MONDAY
WILL LEAD TO LLWS DEVELOPING INITIALLY AT BFD, JST, AND UNV.
ALL OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SHEAR CONCERNS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PA (BFD) IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE STORMS AND WHAT
IMPACTS ANY OF THE TAF SITES SEE, THOUGH THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AT BFD. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z.
MON, EXPECT MUCH BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VISBY
BEFORE CFROPA. FROPA TIMING ROUGHLY 17Z AT BFD, 21Z
JST/UNV/IPT, BUT NOT UNTIL AROUND 03-04Z TUESDAY IN MDT/LNS).
THERE IS A CHC OF TSRA IN BFD IN THE MORNING (PERHAPS BEFORE
SUNRISE), AND ALL OVER CENTRAL PA UNTIL FROPA. THE HIGHEST CHCS
WILL BE (80+%) ACROSS SE PA. 50+KT WIND GUSTS POSS IN SE PA
(PRIMARILY LNS, MDT, CXY). TIMING OF FRONT AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS
BEFORE THEN AT JST/AOO/UNV/IPT MAY NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BUT G40+KT STILL
POSSIBLE AT THOSE AIRFIELDS.
COLDER AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT COULD MAKE A SHSN AT BFD
MON NIGHT - WITH REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VISBY (MAINLY MVFR) LIKELY
(70%) THERE. OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD BE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS MON
NIGHT, BUT AT LEAST MDT AND LNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IF NOT
EVEN CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUST INTO THE
18-28KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. COLD
FROPA AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 3/30:
HARRISBURG 59 IN 1910 AND 1945
WILLIAMSPORT 54 IN 1905
ALTOONA 60 IN 1986
BRADFORD 53 IN 1998
STATE COLLEGE 52 IN 1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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