914
FXUS61 KCTP 312037
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
437 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE CWA THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN PA.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNSHINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONT IS STILL VISIBLE VERY EASILY AS A THIN ROPE ON BOTH
SAT AND RADAR, MOVING STEADILY SE. NOT VERY QUICKLY, BUT IT IS
STILL ON TRACK TO GET TO LNS AROUND 00Z/8 PM. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AFTER FROPA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS GETTING UNSTABLE, BUT SPECIAL SOUNDINGS WERE
LAUNCHED BY MILLERSVILLE UNIV (METEO MARAUDERS) AT 15Z AND 18Z
(THANKS!). THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD INVERTED V PROFILE WITH
A RATHER HARD CAP/INVERSION AROUND 750MB. THE CLOUDS THERE
SUPPORT THE SOUNDING DATA SINCE THEY ARE SHALLOW AND ARE NOT
GROWING TALLER THAN 8-10KFT. OTHER CLOUDS HIGHER UP ARE PASSING
THRU, BUT ONLY ONE SMALL PATCH OF SHRA IS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SWRN COUNTIES AND HEADED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ. THE IMPETUS FOR THESE SHRA SEEMS TO BE A RATHER SUBTLE
FEATURE ALOFT. BUT, THE LEE/PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS LIKELY
GOING TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF BEDFORD, HUNTINGDON, LEWISTOWN,
WILLIAMSPORT. HOWEVER, THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALSO WHERE THE
BEST CAPPING IS RIGHT NOW (19Z). EXPECT IT TO STRUGGLE FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS BEFORE BREAKING THE CAP AND DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION. DCAPE ON RAP SOUNDINGS IS UNDER 1000 J/KG, BUT
STILL FORMIDABLE. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS NOT AS CURVED AS
ANTICIPATED (MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAN SUPERCELLS). THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD HELP IT CURVE A BIT BETTER
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, ESP IN THE FAR SE. THAT COULD HELP
THE SPIN DEVELOP. SEVERE TSRA POSSIBLE, WITH MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WIND. A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE CAP MAY HELP WITH HAIL
FORMATION, BUT IT STARTS OUT BELOW -10C, AND THE WBZ IS ABOVE
700MB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL 40+KT IN THE SE. NO REASON TO
STRAY FROM THE GOING FORECAST AND MESSAGES. WE WOULD EXPECT TO
HEAR FROM SPC SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 2 HRS FOR COORDINATION. BUT,
WITHOUT RADAR ECHOES, IT'S TOUGH TO JUMP INTO A WATCH JUST YET.
FRONT FINISHES PUSHING THRU AROUND 8 PM, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE STORMS WILL FALL FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER, MAINLY SE OF
MDT. WIND OUT OF THE NW SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT NICELY, EVEN IF
THEY GET 1-2" (2" IS A STRETCH WITH PWAT NEAR 1") THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATED SHOTS OF RAIN COULD PUSH IT THERE. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE M-U20S IN THE NRN VALLEYS, AND 35-40F IN THE
SE. THE WIND SHOULD THWART FOG FORMATION. BUT, THE HIGH MSTR
FROM THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE COULD MAKE A COUPLE OF PATCHES IN
THE AM. CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM AND OFF THE LOWER LAKES
COULD HOLD A FEW FLURRIES IN THE N, BUT NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE N/W GO AWAY. DRY AIR
WILL DROP DOWN FROM ALOFT AND PUSH RH INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THE GUSTY NW WIND COULD CAUSE A CONCERN IN
THE FIRE WX DEPT. SEE BELOW FOR MORE. TEMPS UNDER THE EVENTUAL
FULL SUN WILL TOP OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL, IN THE L40S N AND M50S
S. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NW TUES NIGHT. THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS, THOUGH. WIND TURNS TO THE NE AND THEN E
THRU THE NIGHT. MINS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NBM/CONSALL EQUAL BLEND
IN THE M20S NE AND M30S SW/SC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
*RELATIVELY MILD AND WET PATTERN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL
FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH REMAIN FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH
SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR SOME DOWNSIDE RISK
TO MAX TEMPS WHICH COULD VERIFY COLDER VS. NBM. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FCST
AREA.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH THEN
BECOMES WAVY OR QUASI/STATIONARY NEAR/OVER PA INTO THE WEEKEND.
NBM INDICATES A MUCH WARMER DAY ON THU WITH HIGHS 65-75F, BUT
THIS COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THIS PERIOD LOOKS
RATHER WET WITH TOTAL RAINFALL FCST BTWN 1-2+ INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS >2" ARE SHADED FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WESTWARD BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PER THE LATEST WPC QPF. THE LARGEST
DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE (UP TO +20-25F) WILL BE FOR OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LARGELY BENEFICIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
CENTRAL PA WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
A COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MTNS. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS THE SPRING GROWING SEASON
GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED AREAS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF MDT
TO NEAR LNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE
THROUGH 01/0000UTC. SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON BALANCE, EXPECT LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE 31/1800UTC TAF CYCLE. SFC
WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 230-270 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT
TO 280-330 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SEASONABLY COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT BFD AND JST WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR
EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR THE END OF THE
31/18Z CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT WX OR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START APRIL ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS PA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY AFTEROON
FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL LEAVE FUELS
VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD, WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PA WILL
HOPEFULLY GET ENOUGH RAIN TO LIMIT FIRE SPREAD CONCERN THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH BOF
AND ANF FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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