976
FXUS61 KCTP 010150
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
950 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, BRINGING
SUNSHINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT OF 01Z. HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN A REGION OF FGEN
FORCING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. LATEST HRRR, WHICH IS PERFORMING WELL IN THIS STRONGLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT, INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
EXIT LANCASTER COUNTY BY AROUND 06Z.
A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
LEADING TO BREAKING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT
STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH
DAWN. HOWEVER, PROGGED INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW LATE NIGHT FLURRIES OVER
WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM NBM MONDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS, WHICH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NW
MTNS, TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, RESULTING IN FAIR AND RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU OVER THE N MTNS WILL BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON,
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E GRT LKS. MIXING OF VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
COULD CAUSE A CONCERN IN THE FIRE WX DEPT. SEE BELOW FOR MORE.
MIXING DOWN 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C TRANSLATES TO HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST SHOULD WORK INTO CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT. THESE SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS THOUGH. WIND TURNS TO THE NE AND
THEN E THRU THE NIGHT. MINS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NBM/CONSALL EQUAL
BLEND IN THE M20S NE AND M30S SW/SC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
*RELATIVELY MILD AND WET PATTERN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL
FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH REMAIN FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH
SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR SOME DOWNSIDE RISK
TO MAX TEMPS WHICH COULD VERIFY COLDER VS. NBM. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FCST
AREA.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH THEN
BECOMES WAVY OR QUASI/STATIONARY NEAR/OVER PA INTO THE WEEKEND.
NBM INDICATES A MUCH WARMER DAY ON THU WITH HIGHS 65-75F, BUT
THIS COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THIS PERIOD LOOKS
RATHER WET WITH TOTAL RAINFALL FCST BTWN 1-2+ INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS >2" ARE SHADED FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WESTWARD BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PER THE LATEST WPC QPF. THE LARGEST
DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE (UP TO +20-25F) WILL BE FOR OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LARGELY BENEFICIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
CENTRAL PA WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
A COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MTNS. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS THE SPRING GROWING SEASON
GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, WENT WITH SOME VCSH GROUPS. STORMS
NOW EAST OF MDT, AND SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF LNS BY 8 PM.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR WEST, WAITING FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO GIVE IT A PUSH EAST. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, THE
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AND WINDS KICK UP. MUCH
COLDER BY MORNING.
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL
BREEZY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, IMPACTS LIKELY.
SAT...
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START APRIL ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO PA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY AFTEROON
FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NW MTNS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF HARRISBURG, MOST OF
CENTRAL PA SAW VERY LITTLE RAIN MONDAY, LEAVING FUELS
VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH BOF AND ANF FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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