121
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, BRINGING
SUNSHINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
POST-FRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF FGEN FORCING
UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
LATEST HRRR, WHICH IS PERFORMING WELL IN THIS STRONGLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT, INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT
LANCASTER COUNTY BY 05Z-06Z.
A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
LEADING TO BREAKING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT
STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH
DAWN. HOWEVER, PROGGED INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW LATE NIGHT FLURRIES OVER
WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM NBM MONDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS, WHICH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NW
MTNS, TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PWAT AIRMASS WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, RESULTING IN FAIR AND RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU OVER THE N MTNS WILL BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON,
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E GRT LKS. MIXING OF VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
COULD CAUSE A CONCERN IN THE FIRE WX DEPT. SEE BELOW FOR MORE.
MIXING DOWN 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C TRANSLATES TO HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST SHOULD WORK INTO CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT. THESE SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS THOUGH. WIND TURNS TO THE NE AND
THEN E THRU THE NIGHT. MINS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NBM/CONSALL EQUAL
BLEND IN THE M20S NE AND M30S SW/SC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
*RELATIVELY MILD AND WET PATTERN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL
FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN WED PM ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR
SOME DOWNSIDE RISK TO MAX TEMPS WHICH COULD VERIFY COLDER VS.
NBM.
MUCH WARMER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE
REGION BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE
ON THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST EPS/GEFS SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER
WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAINY WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF BETWEEN WED PM AND SUN PM RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
MOST OF THE RAIN NOW TO THE EAST, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TAF FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, WENT WITH SOME VCSH GROUPS. STORMS
NOW EAST OF MDT, AND SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF LNS BY 8 PM.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR WEST, WAITING FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO GIVE IT A PUSH EAST. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, THE
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AND WINDS KICK UP. MUCH
COLDER BY MORNING.
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL
BREEZY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, IMPACTS LIKELY.
SAT...
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START APRIL ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO PA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY AFTEROON
FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NW MTNS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF HARRISBURG, MOST OF
CENTRAL PA SAW VERY LITTLE RAIN MONDAY, LEAVING FUELS
VULNERABLE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH BOF AND ANF FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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