982
FXUS61 KCTP 010801
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SUNSHINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SHOWERS EXITED THE LOWER SUSQ JUST AFTER 06Z, AS SFC LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ELSEWHERE, EXTENSIVE STRATUS REMAINS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ENDLESS
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARDS. LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL LINGER OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES THROUGH DAWN, BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OVER WARREN/MCKEAN
COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PW AIRMASS BUILD INTO THE
REGION TODAY, PROVIDING FAIR AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU OVER
THE N MTNS WILL BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE E GRT LKS. MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
CAUSING A CONCERN IN THE FIRE WX DEPT. WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING CONCERNS DURING THE LOWEST
RHS OF THE DAY. MIXING DOWN 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C TRANSLATES
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE N MTNS, TO THE MID
50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WORKING INTO THE
REGION. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND THEN E THRU THE NIGHT, WITH
MINS CLOSE TO NBM/CONSALL EQUAL BLEND IN THE M20S NE AND M30S
SW/SC. DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME RAINFALL BRUSHING NORTHERN PA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT DUE TO SFC RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP MAXES
COOLER THAN NBM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS FAIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE NW/WC
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
*RELATIVELY MILD AND WET PATTERN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL
FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOWERY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE AREA
STARTS OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED
TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE ON THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA.
LATEST EPS/GEFS SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER
WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAINY WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF BETWEEN WED PM AND SUN PM RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR LNS WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
IFR CEILINGS AT BFD AND JST AND MVFR AT AOO, UNV, AND IPT. MDT
AND LNS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP DURING
THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL APPROACH WESTERN SITES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
TOWARDS CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, IMPACTS LIKELY.
SAT...
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS PA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE MORNING DISPLACED FROM THE LOWEST RHS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH BOF AND ANF FOR ANY
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS. THE RH WILL TREND
UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INLAND.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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