898
FXUS61 KCTP 011759
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SUNSHINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXTENSIVE STRATUS PERSISTING EARLY TODAY FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS NORTHWARDS.
DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING HAS AIDED PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-PW AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY, PROVIDING FAIR AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE SLOWLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE LAKES, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU OVER THE N MTNS WILL BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON,
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E GRT LKS. MIXING OF VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY CAUSING A CONCERN IN THE FIRE WX DEPT. WINDS WILL
TEND TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING CONCERNS DURING THE
LOWEST RHS OF THE DAY. MIXING DOWN 850MB TEMPS OF
-2C TO -5C TRANSLATES TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE
N MTNS, TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WORKING INTO THE
REGION. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND THEN E THRU THE NIGHT, WITH
MINS CLOSE TO NBM/CONSALL EQUAL BLEND IN THE M20S NE AND M30S
SW/SC. DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME RAINFALL BRUSHING NORTHERN PA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT DUE TO SFC RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP MAXES
COOLER THAN NBM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS FAIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE NW/WC
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
*RELATIVELY MILD AND WET PATTERN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL
FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOWERY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE AREA
STARTS OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED
TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE ON THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA.
LATEST EPS/GEFS SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER
WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAINY WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF BETWEEN WED PM AND SUN PM RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CENTRAL PA, WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BROKEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL
PA. LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS FOR KBFD WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS COURTESY OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN, CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES, AS WELL AS INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE END OF THIS 18Z PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
SUN...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS PA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE MORNING DISPLACED FROM THE LOWEST RHS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH BOF AND ANF FOR ANY
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS. THE RH WILL TREND
UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INLAND.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LARDEO
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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