449
FXUS61 KCTP 020108
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
908 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY, THEN STALL
OUT OUT OF JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. A WAVE ON
THE STALLED FRONT IS LIKELY TO LIFT UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM S ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO WESTERN PA. LATEST HREF CLOUD PROGS
INDICATE THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
THEN THICKEN UP AROUND DAYBREAK.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT, COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR, SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MIN TEMPS A BIT BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 90 PCT ARE ACROSS
THE NW MTNS, WHILE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY STANDS THE LEAST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. LATEST CAMS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS WILL RANGE FROM MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NW
MTNS, TO EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY
ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS WED A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY LATE WED
EVENING WITH THE RETREATING 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF
CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN THURSDAY. CURRENT PROGS INDICATE
MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, BUT 70KT WINDS AT 850MB
SUPPORTS A MRGL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TOWARD DAWN OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MESSY AND
WET, TO SAY THE LEAST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. IF GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND, PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL PA MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL, OR MOSTLY
SNOWFALL/WET SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (THROUGH 10Z
WEDNESDAY) WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE LEADING TO HIGH
(~80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
TOWARDS BFD IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME, OVERSPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACROSS W PA.
AT THIS TIME, MENTIONS OF TSRA ARE OUT OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE; HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ACROSS BFD/JST/AOO. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
(~80-90%) TO PREVAIL MVFR AT BFD/JST WITH SOME SIGNALS IN RAP
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS AT ONSET AT BFD. IFR CONDITIONS
AT BFD SEEM TO BE A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO (~30% PROBABILITY),
THUS HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONS WITH A PROB30 GROUP. FURTHER SE
(LNS/MDT), LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SHRA IMPACTING THE AIRFIELDS
BASED ON DRIER LOW-LEVELS, THUS HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OUT OF THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
SUN...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LARDEO
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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