223
FXUS61 KCTP 020314
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY, THEN STALL
OUT OUT OF JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. A WAVE ON
THE STALLED FRONT IS LIKELY TO LIFT UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM S ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST
STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PA. LATEST HREF CLOUD PROGS INDICATE
ANY CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THEN
THICKEN UP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WIND AND DRY AIR, SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND MIN TEMPS A BIT BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT DAYBREAK READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PA, TO THE MID 30S IN THE
MORE URBANIZED SPOTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 90 PCT ARE ACROSS
THE NW MTNS, WHILE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY STANDS THE LEAST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN. LATEST CAMS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS WILL RANGE FROM MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NW
MTNS, TO EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY
ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS WED A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY LATE WED
EVENING WITH THE RETREATING 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF
CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN THURSDAY. CURRENT PROGS INDICATE
MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, BUT 70KT WINDS AT 850MB
SUPPORTS A MRGL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TOWARD DAWN OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE AREA
BRIEFLY BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. 18Z EPS PLUMES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF PM SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY, WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY (CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG) IS PROGGED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS.
THE COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE ON THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
LATEST EPS/GEFS SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRIER
WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAINY WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF
BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SUN PM RANGES FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL PA, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOCUSED OVER THE NW MTNS
AND THE LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME, SO ANY RAIN OVER THAT PART OF
THE STATE WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.
THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RAISE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AS
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (THROUGH 10Z
WEDNESDAY) WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE LEADING TO HIGH
(~80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
TOWARDS BFD IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME, OVERSPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACROSS W PA.
AT THIS TIME, MENTIONS OF TSRA ARE OUT OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE; HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ACROSS BFD/JST/AOO. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
(~80-90%) TO PREVAIL MVFR AT BFD/JST WITH SOME SIGNALS IN RAP
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS AT ONSET AT BFD. IFR CONDITIONS
AT BFD SEEM TO BE A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO (~30% PROBABILITY),
THUS HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONS WITH A PROB30 GROUP. FURTHER SE
(LNS/MDT), LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SHRA IMPACTING THE AIRFIELDS
BASED ON DRIER LOW-LEVELS, THUS HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OUT OF THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
SUN...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:
SITE AVG. MARCH TEMP RANK
HARRISBURG 46.5F (+4.9F) 12TH WARMEST
WILLIAMSPORT 44.8F (+6.2F) 9TH WARMEST
ALTOONA 44.4F (+5.9F) 7TH WARMEST
BRADFORD 40.2F (+7.3F) T3RD WARMEST
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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