742
FXUS61 KCTP 050459
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1259 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* BECOMING DRIER LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0200Z MONDAY, SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF PA, IN THE VICINITY
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SFC BOUNDARY, ANY POP UP CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE NON-SEVERE (ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART). LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS AROUND +15F COMPARED TO
NORMAL.
THE DEEP/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN TO START OFF THE WORK
WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ANY PORTION OF THE
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, SUFFICIENT SHEAR, STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY
BE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON, GROWING
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES BY THE EVENING. GIVEN THE FLOW
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW, EXPECT STORM MOTIONS OF SE TO NW
WITH RIGHT- PROPAGATING STORMS MOVING DUE NORTH. SPC MAINTAINS A
MRGL RISK FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTAINING 1 INCH HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
TORNADOES, A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
LOW LCLS AND SUFFICIENT VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE AT LOW
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO WANE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH BOTH THE NAM
AND HRRR SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR NARROW SWATHS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN FALLING FROM MATURE CONVECTIVE LINES AND CLUSTERS IN JUST
THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z TUE.
WHILE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL AND BRING SOME
RELIEF TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL AREAS WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY -
MONDAY NIGHT.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST INTO
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS IN AND THE CENTER
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, WITH PRECIP LIKELY COMING TO AN END BY WED
EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE. MUCH LOWER PWATS (0.25 - 0.75") WILL USHER IN A
STRETCH OF COOLER AND LESS-RAINY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN RAINFALL FOR THE
PERIOD IS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AMIDST A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
FROST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-99 AND
NORTH OF I-80. THE GROWING SEASON IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE FOR ONLY
THE COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF I-99 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AS
WE APPROACH THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS (MAY 11TH),
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED THERE LATER THIS WEEK.
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL SNAP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
ENSEMBLES FAVOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIKE LAST NIGHT, CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS NOT QUITE AS
LOW AS FCST SO FAR. HOWEVER, EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
SPEAKING OF THUNDER, HAD A STORM FORM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE
HERE AROUND 11 PM AND IS NOW TO THE NORTH. CELL MOVEMENT IS
FROM THE SOUTH.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE, BUT MORE ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.
CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT BETTER BY MID WEEK, AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
WORK IN. HOWEVER, TREND WITH TIME HAS HINTED THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN MAY END UP KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AROUND ALL WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS; SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PROLONGED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF TSRA/CB.
WED-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...COLBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/COLBERT
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
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