066
FXUS61 KCTP 051807
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WINDS, AND
HAIL.
* MORE PM SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON PENNSYLVANIA.
* TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
NUMEROUS BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE APPROX SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA TODAY AS 2 SEPARATE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES/LOBES OF
DIFFERENTIAL VORT LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TRAINING HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA EXIST ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND ENDLESS MTNS
REGION NE OF KIPT.
THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATIC FEATURES ALOFT WILL BE
THE ENHANCED LIFT/FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL TSRA BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX STRETCHED FROM KPIT
TO KCLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY A LINK WITH MESO-B UVVEL BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
ANOTHER SOUTHERLY JET SEGMENT DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS VA AND THE
MD PANHANDLE TOWARD EVENING.
A DISTINCT CHANNEL OF ENHANCED (DEEP AND SOMEWHAT THIN) CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST BETWEEN RT 219 IN THE WESTERN MTNS
AND RT 15 NORTH THROUGH THE SUSQ VALLEY. SPC UPGRADED WESTERN PA
AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO A SLGT RISK FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS
CONTAINING 1 INCH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF,
WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AND
SUFFICIENT VEERING/MODERATELY STRONG LLVL SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE
WIND PROFILE AT LOW LEVELS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS 3PM TO 9PM ACROSS THE LAURELS AND WESTERN PA WHERE BULK SHEAR
IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND
TRAINING CELLS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TOO,
AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES COINCIDING WITH
SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A DEEP, MOIST, WARM CLOUD LAYER UP
THROUGH 11-13 KFT AGL LEADING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. A SHORT- FUSED FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
COLLABORATED/ISSUED AT SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
CONFIDENCE IN A SWATH OF 2-3" OF RAINFALL INCREASES.
MAX TEMPS WILL DISPLAY A SMALL RANGE TODAY (ONLY ABOUT 5-6 DEG
F) FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A FEW SPOTS THROUGHOUT SCENT
PA COULD SEE A 74 OR 75F THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO WANE TONIGHT, WITH BOTH THE NAM AND
HRRR SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR NARROW SWATHS OF 1-2" OF RAIN FALLING
FROM MATURE CONVECTIVE LINES AND CLUSTERS IN JUST THE 12 HOUR
PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z TUE. MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED FROM HUNTINGDON NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH MCKEAN/WARREN COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EAST INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN PLACE EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND NORTH OF I-76/PA TURNPIKE
INTO NY/NJ. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER ON TUESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS IN AND THE CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH PRECIP LIKELY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA BY WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LOW WILL BE GETTING KICKED OUT BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR ON THURS SHOULD KEEP SHRA FROM BEING AS NUMEROUS AND
CERTAINLY AS STRONG/RAINY AS THE EARLY WEEK SHOWERS/STORMS.
30-50 POPS SHOULD BE OK FOR THURS-THURS EVENING. THIS UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSING THRU BUT MAY ALSO SLOW DOWN JUST
AFTER IT PASSES OUR LONGITUDE. THUS, WE WILL HAVE TO LINGER A
LOW CHC POP ON FRI-FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WE MAY STILL HOLD ONTO A 20 POP FOR THOSE
DAYS THOUGH. SEE NO REASONS TO STRAY FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE ON
THE WHOLE. MINOR TWEAKS ONLY TO MAKE POPS AND QPF MATCH UP.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NOT A BAD MORNING SO FAR, NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE RADAR. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN
SPOTS AT SUNRISE. STILL EXPECT FOG TO BE LIMITED IN SPACE AND
TIME.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LIKE LAST NIGHT, CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS NOT QUITE AS
LOW AS FCST SO FAR. HOWEVER, EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
SPEAKING OF THUNDER, HAD A STORM FORM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE
HERE AROUND 11 PM AND IS NOW TO THE NORTH. CELL MOVEMENT IS
FROM THE SOUTH.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE, BUT MORE ON THE ISOLATED
SIDE.
CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT BETTER BY MID WEEK, AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
WORK IN. HOWEVER, TREND WITH TIME HAS HINTED THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN MAY END UP KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AROUND ALL WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS; SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PROLONGED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF TSRA/CB.
WED-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
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